基于不同目标函数的WRF-Hydro模型参数敏感性研究  

Sensitivity Impact Analysis of Different Objective Functions on the Parameters of WRF-Hydro Model

作　　者：谷黄河[1,2] 石怀轩 孙敏涛 丁震 顾苏烨 GU Huang-he;SHI Huai-xuan;SUN Min-tao;DING Zhen;GU Su-ye(The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第1期61-69,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42271020);浙江省水利防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(FZJZSYS21008)。

摘　　要：水文与气象预报相结合可以有效提高洪水预报的精度和延长预见期,陆气耦合模型已成为水文气象学者研究的重点。WRF-Hydro模型作为新一代分布式陆气耦合模型在多尺度洪水预报中具有广阔的应用前景,但由于各物理过程参数化方案复杂,模型计算量大,对该模型的参数敏感性研究还不充分,也影响着模型的模拟精度。研究以湿润区的新安江上游屯溪流域为研究对象,构建多个单目标和多目标函数,并结合Morris全局参数敏感性分析方法,探究了WRF-Hydro模型在不同目标函数下的参数敏感性。结果表明:土壤参数(DKSAT、SMCMAX、BEXP)主要影响壤中流和地表径流,对径流量影响显著,尤其DKSAT最为敏感,直接影响水在土壤中的下渗速度,增大时基流量显著增高而洪峰流量则明显降低;产流参数(SLOPE、REFKDT)主要影响地表径流和基流分配,对洪水过程线形状有重要影响;河道汇流参数ManN影响汇流速度并主要控制峰现时间;植被参数MP对于总水量有一定影响;坡面汇流参数OVROUGHRTFAC和地下水参数Zmax则最不敏感。不同目标函数下的参数敏感性顺序和最优参数取值有一定差异,单目标函数中以相对误差为优化目标会更侧重于全年径流总量和低流量部分的模拟精度,而以效率系数和Kling-Gupta系数为目标则更侧重于场次洪水和高流量部分的模拟效果;基于几个单目标函数组合的多目标函数综合考虑了不同目标函数的影响,结果在一定程度上优于单目标函数。研究可为合理确定WRF-Hydro模型参数优化策略提供参考。The combination of hydrological and meteorological forecasts can effectively improve the accuracy and forecast period of flood forecasting.The land-surface hydrological modeling module has become the focus of research by hydrometeorologists.As a new generation of distributed land-surface hydrological model,the WRF-Hydro model has broad application prospects in multi-scale flood forecasting.However,due to the complex parameterization scheme of each physical process and the large amount of calculation of the model,the current parameter sensitivity research of the WRF-Hydro model is insufficient,which also affects the simulation accuracy of the model.This study takes the Tunxi basin in the upper reaches of the Xin´anjiang River in the humid area as the research basin,constructs a set of single-objective and multi-objective functions,and combines Morris method for global sensitivity analysis to explore the parameter sensitivity of the WRF-Hydro model under different objective functions.The result shows that:soil parameters(DKSAT,SMCMAX,BEXP)mainly affect subsurface and surface runoff,and have a significant impact on runoff volume.In particular,DKSAT is the most sensitive and directly affects the movement speed of water in the soil.When increasing,the base flow rate increases significantly while the peak flow rate decreases significantly.;runoff parameters(SLOPE,REFKDT)mainly affect the distribution of surface runoff and baseflow,and have an important effect on the overall shape of the flood hydrograph;the channel routing parameter ManN affects the speed of runoff convergence to channel network and mainly controls the peak time;vegetation parameter MP has a certain influence on annual water volum;overland flow parameter OVROUGHRTFAC and groundwater parameter Zmax are the least sensitive..There are certain differences in the parameter sensitivity order and optimal parameter values under different objective functions.The single objective function based on relative bias focuses on the simulation of the total annual runo

关 键 词：WRF-Hydro模型 Morris法 敏感性分析 多目标函数 洪水预报 

分 类 号：P334.92[天文地球—水文科学]