小水电河流生态流量评估及盈亏变化归因  

Assessment of Ecological Flow and Attribution of Eco-flow Indicators in Small Hydropower Rivers

作　　者：兰仟 林凯荣 刘梅先 涂新军 LAN Qian;LIN Kai-rong;LIU Mei-xian;TU Xin-jun(School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519000,Guangdong Province,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Civil Engineering,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong Province,China;Guangdong Engineering Technology Research Center of Water Security Regulation and Control for Southern China,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong Province,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519000 [2]广东省海洋土木工程重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2025年第1期93-103,共11页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371029)。

摘　　要：作为我国实现“双碳”目标的重要路径之一,绿色小水电尽管在中小河流中能够提供经济效益,但同时会影响流域生态水文过程,从而制约小水电河流生态系统的可持续发展。以滨江流域为例,利用SWAT模型重建不同时期径流过程,基于生态流量过程线组对生态流量进行时空量化,比较不同情景生态径流指标变化规律,定量揭示人类活动和气候变化对生态盈亏的贡献分量。结果表明:(1)流域内生态流量时空分布差异明显,与基准期相比,气候变化和人类活动均不利于保障流域内的生态流量,气候变化影响下中位生态流量保证率减小7个百分点,叠加人类活动影响后中位生态流量保证率累积下降17.74个百分点,尤其在汛期和汛末流域内生态缺水问题突出,未来可推行小水电的季节性限制运行。(2)年内变化上,气候变化多引起生态盈余的减少,夏季减少最为强烈(p <0.05);人类活动则多引起生态赤字的增加,秋、冬季节增加最为显著(p <0.10)。(3)生态盈余与降水距平存在较好的一致性,相关系数均在0.50以上,而生态赤字与降水距平的相关性较差,尤其在秋、冬季其相关系数多低于0.30。(4)人类活动对各时期的生态赤字变化的相对贡献均达到了80%以上,引起滨江生态缺水的主要原因是人为干扰过度。研究结果为适应变化环境下小水电河流健康管理提供参考依据。As one of the crucial strategies to achieve the“dual-carbon”goal in China,green small hydropower can provide economic benefits in small to medium-sized river basins.However,it will also impacts the ecohydrological processes of the basin,thus limiting the sustainable development of small hydropower river ecosystems.Taking Bin River Basin as an example,the SWAT model was applied to reconstruct the runoff process in different periods.The ecological flow was quantified temporal and spatial terms based on the ecological flow process line group.The change laws of ecological runoff indicators in different scenarios were compared,and the contribution of human activities and climate change to ecological profit and loss was quantitatively revealed.The comprehensive analysis revealed several critical findings:①There were significant spatiotemporal differences in ecological flow distribution within the Bin River Basin.Compared to the baseline period,climate change and human activities are not conducive to ensuring the ecological flow in the basin.The median value of ecological flow assurance rate has decreased by nearly 7%under the influence of climate change.When compounded with the impact of human activities,there was a cumulative decrease of 17.74%in the median value of ecological flow assurance rate.Especially,the ecological water demand was severe during the flood season and its culmination.Hence,the implementation of seasonally restricted operational protocols for small-scale hydropower facilities arises as a prospective strategy for ameliorating this ecological challenge in future periods.②On an annual scale,climate change predominantly led to a reduction in eco-surplus,with the most significant decrease occurring in the summer(p<0.05).In contrast,human activities primarily caused an increase in eco-deficit,especially during the autumn and winter seasons(p<0.10).③There was a notable consistency between eco-surplus and precipitation anomalies,with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.50.However,t

关 键 词：生态流量 生态径流指标 气候变化 人类活动 变化归因 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]