基于APSIM模型不同施氮处理下夏玉米产量模拟以及敏感性分析  

Simulation and Sensitivity Analysis of Summer Maize Yield under Different Nitrogen Application Treatments Based on APSIM Model

作　　者：古莱姆拜尔·艾尔肯 梁艺[1] 马合木江·艾合买提[2] 赵鑫[1] 卫仁娟[1] GULAIMUBAIER AIERKEN;LIANG Yi;MAHEMUJIANG AIHEMAITI;ZHAO Xin;WEI Ren-juan(Sichuan Water Conservancy Technical College,Chongzhou 611231;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]四川水利职业技术学院,四川崇州611231 [2]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《玉米科学》2024年第10期114-119,共6页Journal of Maize Sciences

基　　金：博士科研启动基金项目(2022SCSZYD-01);四川省自然科学基金项目(2022NSFSC1125);河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2016490511);国家自然科学基金项目(51469033)。

摘　　要：基于大田试验,采用农作物模拟模型,探讨不同施肥量对夏玉米产量的影响,并分析气候变化对夏玉米产量的敏感性。此外,评估APSIM模型在模拟该地区夏玉米产量方面的适用性。研究表明,APSIM模型在模拟该地区夏玉米产量方面表现出色,线性回归系数R~2分别为0.9525和0.9830,归一化均方根误差(NRMSE)分别为5.567%和7.434%,模型一致性评价指标D分别为0.972和0.993。利用崇州市的气象数据进行模拟,结果表明,在所有复合肥处理中,15-15-15配方的复合肥用量为890 kg/hm~2时,夏玉米产量达到最佳。年平均温度和降雨量是影响模型模拟夏玉米产量的最敏感气候因素,各处理下的敏感性指数均呈正相关。Based on field trials,this study employed a crop simulation model to investigate the impact of varying fertilizer applications on the yield of summer maize and to analyze the sensitivity of summer maize yield to climate change.Additionally,the suitability of the APSIM model in simulating the yield of summer maize in the region was evaluated.The results demonstrated that the APSIM model performed exceptionally well in simulating the yield of summer maize in the area,with linear regression coefficients R2 of 0.9525 and 0.9830,normalized root mean square errors(NRMSE)of 5.567%and 7.434%,and model consistency evaluation indices D of 0.972 and 0.993.Utilizing meteorological data from Chongzhou City for simulation,the findings indicated that among all compound fertilizer treatments,the optimal yield of summer maize was achieved with an application rate of 890 kg/ha for the 15-1515 formulation.The average annual temperature and rainfall were identified as the most sensitive climatic factors affecting the simulated yield of summer maize under different fertilizer treatments,with sensitivity indices showing positive correlations across treatments.

关 键 词：夏玉米 APSIM模型 复合肥 作物产量 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：S513.062[农业科学—作物学]