蛙跳现象与区域协调发展:动力测算与影响模拟  

Leapfrogging Phenomenon and Regional Coordinated Development:Motivation Measurement and Impact Simulation

作　　者：周密[1] 张心贝 张恩泽 ZHOU Mi;ZHANG Xin-bei;ZHANG En-ze(China Urban and Regional Economic Research Center,Nankai University;Economic Behavior and Policy Simulation Laboratory,Nankai University;School of Economics,Nankai University;School of Public Administration,Tianjin University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济与社会发展研究院、经济行为与政策模拟实验室 [2]南开大学经济学院 [3]天津大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第11期43-61,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“新空间赋能视角下构建大中小城市协调发展格局研究”(批准号23AZD033);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金“以现代化产业链建设推动大中小城市协调发展研究”(批准号63243044);教育部哲学社会科学实验室专项基金项目“数字化背景下中国城乡融合与区域协调发展的机制与路径研究”(批准号H0123702)。

摘　　要：近年来蛙跳现象成为影响区域协调发展、制约邻域地区新质生产力培育的重要因素。蛙跳现象特指在创新成果的分布中,前端研发的创新策源地与后端承接的创新转化地之间出现的远距离空间分离。本文基于2012—2021年91万条专利权转移数据,在源点—目的地框架下测算蛙跳动力并估计其对区域协调发展的影响。研究发现:蛙跳呈现“东西高、中间低、东北居中”的空间结构及“前疏后密”的分布特征,京津冀、长三角及珠三角地区分别呈现“大出小进式”“同出同进式”及“大出大进式”的蛙跳现象。蛙跳在不同空间范围上作用不同,在全域层面上促进区域协调发展,但城市群内孵效果不明显。城市比较优势机制和政府协同转化机制通过提升技术禀赋优势与蛙跳转化效率,进一步强化协调作用。蛙跳的关键原因在于创新腹地的转化力不足,破题关键在于回流而非截流,为此设计基于全域—局域的蛙跳回流实验进行路径模拟。本文为深入认识中国特色的蛙跳现象、通过分层分域的回流路径更好促进区域协调发展提供了理论参考和实证证据。The uneven spatial distribution of innovative achievements has recently become a vital factor restricting regional coordinated development.Notably,the leapfrogging phenomenon is significant,which refers to the long-distance spatial separation between the source area of front-end R&D and the transformation area of back-end applications for the distribution of innovative achievements.This paper constructs a new economic geography model with two elements,three regions,and two sectors.Within the general equilibrium framework that incorporates a leapfrogging perspective,the model characterizes the leapfrogging phenomenon by examining the outflow of knowledge capital across urban agglomerations.It reflects the dynamic process of leapfrogging through changes in the equilibrium of supply and demand relationships between regions.Based on the inter-city patent transfer flow dataset covering 264 cities from 2012 to 2021,the leapfrogging source power and transformation power are calculated within the origin-destination framework.The following characteristic facts are obtained:The leapfrogging phenomenon in China exhibits a spatial pattern characterized by"high levels in the eastern and western regions,low levels in the central region,and a concentration in the northeastern region".Its distribution structure is"sparse in the front and dense in the back"led by the Pearl River Delta.It also presents the"concentration of power levels"feature of approaching municipalities.②The leapfrogging phenomenon is prevalent across three major urban agglomerations,characterized by"strong innovation,heavy transformation,and fast speed".③The agglomerations of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,and the Pearl River Delta perform as"big out and small in","same out and in",and"big out and big in",respectively.Subsequently,a panel Logit model is established to estimate the leapfrogging impact on coordinated development between regions based on the city-pair dimension.Three key findings are as follows.The leapfrogging pheno

关 键 词：蛙跳现象 动力测算 成果转化 区域协调发展 

分 类 号：F1244[经济管理—世界经济]