数字化转型、汇率变动对出口的影响研究  

Study on the Impact of Digital Transformation,Exchange Rate Changes on Exports

作　　者：丁一兵[1,2] 张晓鸥 DING Yi-bing;ZHANG Xiao-ou

机构地区：[1]吉林大学中国国有经济研究中心 [2]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2024年第6期22-40,共19页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：教育部基地重大项目“中国式现代化道路中国有企业推进‘双循环’新发展格局构建的作用研究”(项目编号:23JJD790006,项目负责人:丁一兵);国家社会科学基金重点项目“大国战略竞争背景下中国提升产业链韧性与安全的路径及对策研究”(项目编号:23AGJ005,项目负责人:李俊久);国家社会科学基金青年项目“建设全国统一大市场背景下中国制造业企业出口结构升级路径研究”(项目编号:23CJL014,项目负责人:宋畅);吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省深度融入‘一带一路’:挑战、方式与实现路径”(项目编号:2023C41,项目负责人:刘紫薇);吉林省社会科学基金项目“吉林省‘双基地’技术创新赋能制造业高质量发展路径研究”(项目编号:2023C040486,项目负责人:张弘媛)。

摘　　要：全面建设数字中国和加快迈向贸易强国的双重背景下,企业数字化转型在维持出口贸易稳定增长中发挥了愈加重要的推动作用;与此同时,汇率市场化推进过程带来的汇率波动常态化也会影响出口企业的决策和发展成效。基于2007—2016年中国上市公司财务报告和中国海关数据库的匹配数据,实证研究企业数字化转型对出口的影响及汇率变动在其中发挥的作用。结果表明:企业数字化转型显著促进了出口,但人民币升值减弱了该正向影响,人民币贬值强化了该正向作用。进一步研究发现,汇率变动能够通过包括价格边际、数量边际、出口市场扩展边际、产品种类扩展边际在内的二元边际渠道和包括风险承担能力、风险偏好程度在内的风险渠道影响企业数字化转型的出口促进效应,且该影响在非国有企业、劳动密集型企业、东部地区企业和中心城市企业内更为显著。因此,政府应出台扶持企业数字化转型的相关政策,企业应制定适宜的数字化转型策略,增强应对汇率变动的能力、把握宏观汇率调控政策导向,降低汇率变动对出口的冲击,推进中国高水平对外开放。Under the dual background of comprehensively building a digital China and accelerating towards a trade powerhouse,the digital transformation of enterprises plays an increasingly important driving role in maintaining the stable growth of export trade;At the same time,the normalization of exchange rate fluctuations brought about by the process of advancing exchange rate marketisation also affects the decision-making and effectiveness of the development of export enterprises.Based on the financial report data of listed companies and the matched data of China Customs Database from 2007-2016,this paper empirically investigates the impact of digital transformation on enterprises' exports and explores the role played by exchange rate changes in it.The results show that digital transformation significantly promotes firms' exports,but RMB appreciation attenuates the positive effect and RMB depreciation strengthens the positive effect.It is further found that exchange rate changes can affect the export promotion effect of enterprises' digital transformation by influencing the binary marginal channels including price margin,quantity margin,export market expansion margin,product variety expansion margin,and the risk channel including risk-taking ability and risk appetite,and the effect is more significant in non-state-owned firms,labor-intensive firms,firms in eastern regions and central cities.The research provides theoretical references and practical insights for promoting enterprises' digital transformation,enhancing enterprises' ability to cope with exchange rate changes,grasping the policy guidance of macro exchange rate control,and promoting China's high-level opening-up to the outside world.

关 键 词：数字化转型 企业实际有效汇率 出口 二元边际 汇率波动 

分 类 号：F49[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62