十二年免费教育政策对教育代际流动的影响  

The impact of twelve years of free education policy on intergenerational educational mobility

作　　者：陈媛媛 宋扬 CHEN Yuanyuan;SONG Yang(Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学,上海200433

出　　处：《财贸研究》2024年第12期62-76,共15页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口与经济协调发展的逻辑、模式和规律研究”(23&ZD183)。

摘　　要：本文基于2015年1%人口普查抽样调查数据,评估了十二年免费教育试点政策对教育代际流动性的影响。研究发现,相较于高学历家庭子女,十二年免费教育促使低学历家庭子女获得大学教育的可能性显著增加,表现为父母学历为本科和初中的子女之间获得大学教育的概率差距缩小了11.9个百分点。对教育代际流动性进行直接检验,发现十二年免费教育政策显著提高了教育的代际流动性,政策实施后教育代际次序相关性显著下降,低学历家庭子女向上流动的可能性显著提高。异质性结果表明,十二年免费教育政策对促进低收入家庭和欠发达地区家庭的教育代际流动更为显著。在实证基础上,本文提出在欠发达地区优先推行高中免费教育,探索免费学前教育政策,提供低息或无息高中助学贷款等政策建议,为后续在全国层面推广高中免费教育甚至高中义务教育提供政策参考。Based on the 1%Population Census sample survey data in 2015,this paper evaluates the impact of the twelve-year free education pilot policy on intergenerational educational mobility.We find that the likelihood of children from low-educated families obtaining a college education significantly increases compared to those from families with high education level.The gap in college education attainment probability between children whose parents have a bachelor degree and those whose parents only have a junior school education has narrowed by 11.9 percentage.Direct tests of intergenerational educational mobility reveal that the twelve-year free education policy significantly enhances intergenerational educational mobility,with a notable decline in the correlation of educational attainment across generations after the policy implementation,and a significant increase in the upward mobility of children from low-education families.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the twelve-year free education policy has a more pronounced effect on promoting intergenerational educational mobility in low-income families and families in underdeveloped regions.Based on empirical findings,this paper suggests prioritizing the implementation of free high school education in underdeveloped regions,exploring free preschool education policies,and providing low-interest or interest-free student loans for high school education,and offering policy policy references for the subsequent promotion of free high school education or even compulsory high-school education at the national level.

关 键 词：十二年免费教育 教育代际流动 代际向上流动 政策评估 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]