基于系统动力学模型的医院舆情风险研究  

Research of hospital public opinion risk based on a system dynamics model

作　　者：郭君伟 楚晓岚 栗会芳 秦一力 王红 李少刚[1] Guo Junwei;Chu Xiaolan;Li Huifang;Qin Yili;Wang Hong;Li Shaogang(Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan 030001,Shanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学第二医院,太原030001

出　　处：《中国医疗管理科学》2025年第1期40-46,共7页Chinese Journal Of Medical Management Sciences

基　　金：山西省哲学社会科学规划课题(2023YY084);山西省大健康产业高质量发展科研专项课题(DJKZXKT2023184)。

摘　　要：目的应用系统动力学模型探讨医院舆情风险系统的作用力,为医院舆情管理提供参考。方法构建医院舆情风险的因果回路图和存量流量图,结合案例舆情事件设定模型的方程和参数,应用Vensim PLE软件模拟仿真。结果医院子系统和政府子系统的作用变量分别增加10%,都会降低医院舆情风险,其中政府作用力更强,“峰值到消退阶段”比“起始到峰值阶段”作用更明显。将系统5个流量变量分别增加10%后比较舆情风险的变化,在舆情起始和发展阶段,事件作用力最大,其次是网媒和医院的作用力;在舆情峰值和消退阶段,政府作用力最大,其次是网媒和医院的作用力。结论在舆情起始阶段,医院应侧重事件主体,将舆情控制在初始萌芽状态;在发展和峰值阶段,医院应有效回应,表明态度,澄清事实,提倡政府适时介入,降低舆情热度,维护社会稳定;在消退阶段,医院应利用事件余热进行形象重塑。Objective To explore the force of hospital public opinion risk by adopting a system dynamics model,thus providing a basis for public opinion management in hospitals.Methods The causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram of hospital public opinion were constructed,and the equations and parameters of the model were set by combining the case public opinion events,and the simulation was performed using Vensim PLE.Results If the initial value of the variables of the hospital and the government both increased by 10%,the hospital public opinion risk would be reduced.In particular,the government had a stronger effect,and the effect of"peak to fading stage"was more obvious than that of"latent to peak stage".After increasing the initial values of the 5 traffic variables of hospital public opinion by 10%,respectively,it is found that in the occurrence and development stage of public opinion,the event exerted the greatest influence,followed by the online media and hospital.In the peak and fading stages of public opinion,the government exerted the greatest influence,followed by the online media and hospital.Conclusion In the stage of occurrence,the hospital should focus on the main body of the event and control the public opinion in the initial bud state.In the development and peak stage,the hospital should respond effectively,express its attitude,clarify the facts,and advocate the government's timely intervention to reduce the heat of public opinion and maintain social stability.In the fading stage,the hospital should make use of the residual heat of the event to rebuild its image.

关 键 词：医院舆情风险 因果回路图 存量流量图 模拟仿真 

分 类 号：R197.3[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]