东南亚地区人民币国际化的贸易效应研究  

Research on the Trade Effect of RMB Internationalization in Southeast Asia

作　　者：刘方[1] LIU Fang(School of Economics,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《经济论坛》2025年第1期107-119,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“东南亚地区人民币国际化效果的国家异质性及政策优化研究”(21BGJ043)。

摘　　要：东南亚国家与中国具有紧密经贸关系,东盟已成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。随着人民币国际化的推进,东南亚国家在人民币跨境交易使用方面存在明显的异质性,这可能会影响两国双边贸易。基于此,文章在剖析东南亚国家与中国双边贸易以及东南亚地区人民币国际化的特征事实与影响机制后,利用2009—2022年东南亚8国的长面板数据进行全面FGLS估计和稳健性检验。研究发现,推进人民币国际化有助于促进东南亚地区从中国的进口,进而平衡东南亚各国与中国的贸易差额。因此,推进人民币国际化应从国家异质性出发,采取分层次和多样化政策组合,在确保人民币币值稳定的基础上,调整我国对外贸易区位与产品结构,以实现与东南亚各国贸易共赢,助力人民币国际化行稳致远。Southeast Asian countries have close economic and trade relations with China,and ASEAN has become China’s largest trading partner.With the advancement of RMB internationalization,Southeast Asian countries have obvious national heterogeneity in the use of RMB cross-border transactions,which may affect bilateral trade between the two countries.After analyzing the bilateral trade between Southeast Asian countries and China,the characteristic facts and influencing mechanism of RMB internationalization in Southeast Asia,this paper uses the long panel data of 8 Southeast Asian countries from 2009 to 2022 to conduct a comprehensive FGLS estimation and robustness test.The results find that the advancement of RMB internationalization in Southeast Asia can help promote its imports from China,and thus balance the trade balance between China and Southeast Asian countries.Therefore,to advance the internationalization of RMB should proceed from national heterogeneity,adopt hierarchical and diversified policy combinations,adjust China’s foreign trade location and product structure based on ensuring the stability of the value of RMB,to achieve win-win trade with Southeast Asian countries,and contribute to the steady and long-term internationalization of RMB.

关 键 词：人民币国际化 双边贸易 贸易差额 货币互换协议 全面FGLS 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]