智能社会(人工智能时代)的人口再转变  

The Demographic Transition of Intelligent Society (Artificial Intelligence Era)

作　　者：李建新[1] 丁新新 Li JianXin;Ding XinXin(Department of Sociology,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学社会学系,北京100871

出　　处：《晋阳学刊》2025年第1期40-50,共11页Academic Journal of Jinyang

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口长期均衡发展关键问题研究”(项目编号:22JJD840001)。

摘　　要：工业化进程中的世界人口转变呈现出相似的轨迹。三次人口转变理论考察了工业化过程中人口再生产模式转变的特点、原因和影响,也正是费孝通先生所言的人类社会“三级两跳”中的“第一跳”(从农业社会到工业社会)中人口再生产模式的演变。人口转变带来人口数量和结构变迁,并深刻影响着国家与地区实力和世界竞争格局。当前我们正处在“第二跳”(从工业社会到智能社会)之中,人工智能时代开启,技术从对人类体力的替代转为对人类脑力的替代,将会对人类自身再生产和生活产生深刻影响。人工智能技术所带来的弥补、叠加和替代效应或将革命性地改变出生和死亡这两个人口转变要素,从而颠覆传统人口转变与人口变迁模式,塑造工业社会跃升智能社会背景下的人口再转变。人口是基础性、长期性、战略性变量,面对未来技术变革带来的不确定性,需要从长时段大视野出发,尽早预见和充分准备以应对科技巨变对人口发展带来的革命性影响。The world’s demographic transition in the process of industrialization shows a similar trajectory.The theory of three demographic transitions examines the characteristics,causes and effects of the transformation of the population reproduction mode in the process of industrialization,which is the evolution of the population reproduction mode in the"first jump"(from agricultural society to industrial society)of the"Three Levels and Two Jumps"of human society as said by Mr.Fei Xiaotong.Demographic transition brings about changes in population quantity and structure,and profoundly affects national and regional strength and world competitive landscape.At present,we are in the"second jump"(from industrial society to intelligent society),the era of artificial intelligence has begun,and technology has changed from the replacement of human physical strength to the replacement of human brain,which will have a profound impact on human reproduction and life.The compensation,superposition and substitution effects brought about by artificial intelligence technology may revolutionize the birth and death of the two elements of demographic transition,thus subverting the traditional demographic transition and population change mode,and shaping the demographic transition under the background of industrial society to jump to intelligent society.Population is a basic,long-term and strategic variable.Faced with the uncertainties brought about by future technological changes,it is necessary to take a long-term and broad perspective,anticipate and fully prepare for the revolutionary impact of scientific and technological changes on population development as soon as possible.

关 键 词：人口转变 人口数量 人口结构 人工智能 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]