耦合Graphab-PLUS模型的生态网络动态评估框架——以北京市中心城区为例  

A dynamic assessment framework of ecological networks coupled with Graphab-PLUS model:a case study in the central area of Beijing

作　　者：李豪 吴明豪 詹芳芷 李虹烨 张翔 刘志成[1] Li Hao;Wu Minghao;Zhan Fangzhi;Li Hongye;Zhang Xiang;Liu Zhicheng(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083,China;School of Architecture&Urban Planning,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,Guangdong,China;Beijing Engineering Company Limited,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083 [2]深圳大学建筑与城市规划学院,广东深圳518060 [3]中国电建集团北京勘测设计研究院有限公司,北京100024

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》2025年第1期95-105,共11页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

基　　金：国家重大科技专项独立课题(2018ZX07101005),北京市共建项目专项“城乡生态环境北京实验室”(BLUREE02)。

摘　　要：【目的】探索适应城市动态发展和政策引导下的城市生态网络评估框架,为生态网络的精准化建设提供发展导向和前瞻布局。【方法】以北京市中心城区为研究对象,基于2005年和2020年两期土地利用数据,使用PLUS模型对3种城市发展情景下2035年的土地利用进行模拟,借助Graphab计算不同情景下生态网络的景观连通性指标,构建生态网络动态评估框架,厘清问题并探讨中心城区的生态建设方向。【结果】(1)在总体规划发展情景下,建设用地的扩张强度得到控制,呈现出分散式发展的趋势,整体绿色空间发展状态向好;城市扩张发展情景下建设用地向周边用地强烈扩张。(2)2005—2020年间,中心城区的连通概率指数(PC)下降了29.1%,城市生态网络有所退化。总体规划发展情景的生态网络状态改善显著,PC涨幅为62.6%;而城市扩张情景加重了生态退化的趋势,PC降幅为38.6%。(3)在个体水平上,连通概率变化指数等级分布呈现西北高,东南低的格局。总体规划发展情景下,整体网络结构趋于完整,较高等级要素数量增加;城市扩张发展情景下整体网络结构愈发支离破碎,要素等级退化显著。(4)动态评估框架上,中心城区倾向低基底特征,各区网络特征差异显著。【结论】研究通过耦合Graphab-PLUS模型,探索了城市生态网络的评估方法,构建了“基底–韧性–潜力”的三维度动态评估框架,为明确区域生态发展导向和支撑国土空间规划提供科学依据。提出了中心城区生态网络的优化建议:整体上补足区域生态短板,加强东南片区生态建设;在分区优化方面,优先提升海淀区生态网络的整体功能,着重保护石景山区的生态资源,并注重东西城区网络要素的系统性建设。[Objective]This study aimed to explore a framework for evaluating urban ecological networks that adapts to the dynamic development of cities and policy guidance,providing development guidance and forward-looking layout for the precise construction of ecological networks.[Method]Taking the central urban area of Beijing as an example,based on land use data from two periods in 2005 and 2020,the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use in 2035 under three urban development scenarios.Graphab was used to calculate the landscape connectivity indicators of the ecological network under different scenarios,and a dynamic evaluation framework for the ecological network was constructed to clarify the problems and explore the direction of ecological construction in the central urban area.[Result](1)Under the overall planning development scenario,the expansion intensity of construction land was controlled,showing a trend of decentralized development,and the overall green space development status was good;under the urban expansion development scenario,construction land expanded strongly to surrounding land.(2)From 2005 to 2020,connectivity probability index(PC)in the central urban area decreased by 29.1%,and the urban ecological network degraded.The ecological network state under the overall planning development scenario improved significantly,with a PC increase of 62.6%;while the urban expansion scenario aggravated the trend of ecological degradation,with a PC decrease of 38.6%.(3)At individual level,the distribution of connectivity probability change index grades showed a pattern of high in the northwest and low in the southeast.Under the overall planning development scenario,the overall network structure tended to be complete,with an increase in the number of higher-level elements;under the urban expansion development scenario,the overall network structure became increasingly fragmented,and the degradation of element grades was significant.(4)On the dynamic evaluation framework,the central urban area tended to have lowbas

关 键 词：生态网络 景观图论 情景模拟 景观连通性 北京市中心城区 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]