北京市生态系统调节服务稀缺性演变特征及驱动因素分析  

Evolutionary Characteristics and Driving Factors of the Scarcity of Urban Ecosystem Regulating Services in Beijing

作　　者：裴厦 于倩茹 刘春兰 郑方钰 PEI Sha;YU Qianru;LIU Chunlan;ZHENG Fangyu(Beijing Municipal Research Institute of Eco-Environment Protection,National Urban Environmental Pollution Control Engineering Research Center,Beijing 100037,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市生态环境保护科学研究院,国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第1期111-124,共14页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.41801186)。

摘　　要：北京市作为国际大都市,生态系统调节服务呈现显著的稀缺特征。研究北京市生态系统调节服务的稀缺性特征及其影响因素,对于合理制定城市生态系统调节服务定价策略以及优化生态安全格局具有重要意义。因此,该研究构建了城市生态系统调节服务稀缺性分析理论框架,并运用生态模型测算、空间自相关性分析以及地理探测器等方法,系统分析了北京市生态系统调节服务相对稀缺程度的时间演变、空间差异以及影响因素。结果表明:①基于相对稀缺理论和空间聚集理论,以供需关系为基础可以构建城市生态系统调节服务分析理论框架。②2010−2020年,北京市生态系统调节服务稀缺程度呈现出“提升期”(2010−2015年)和“回落期”(2015−2020年)两个阶段。③北京市生态系统调节服务稀缺指数存在正向空间自相关性,局部空间聚类效应显著;2010−2020年,高-高聚类区(占全市面积的40%以上)先增加后减小,低-低聚类区(占全市面积的15%以上)逐渐减小。④北京市生态系统调节服务稀缺程度的影响因子(q值)按照影响程度从大到小排序为人口密度(0.62)、年降水量(0.41)、NDVI(0.40)、生态用地比例(0.36)和坡度(0.20)。人口密度和生态用地比例的交互影响作用(q=0.77)最大,其次为NDVI与生态用地比例的交互影响(q=0.76)。研究显示,近年来北京市生态系统调节服务稀缺程度呈逐渐优化的趋势,且演化特征存在明显的空间异质性。因此,建议合理控制人口分布、建设用地以及生态用地比例和质量等关键因素,进一步优化调节服务供给和需求空间结构;同时,未来可以根据生态系统调节服务稀缺指数构建差异化的调节服务定价方法,优化生态产品总值(GEP)核算工作。As an international metropolis,Beijing′s regulating ecosystem services are characterized by significant scarcity.Investigating the nature of this scarcity and the factors influencing ecosystem regulating services in Beijing is crucial for developing a rational pricing strategy for these services and optimizing the ecological security framework.This study constructs a theoretical framework for analysing the scarcity of urban ecosystem regulating services and systematically examines the spatio-temporal evolution,spatial differences,and driving factors of the relative scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing.The analysis uses ecological model estimation,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and geographic detector methods.The analytical software used included ArcGIS,GEODA,and Geographic Detector.The results indicate that:(1)A theoretical framework for analysing urban ecosystem regulating services can be developed based on the principles of relative scarcity and spatial aggregation,considering the interplay between supply and demand dynamics.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing followed two phases:a‘rising period’(2010-2015)and a‘declining period’(2015-2020).This trend is closely linked to the pace of ecological construction at each stage,as well as to the rate of social and economic development.From 2010 to 2015,both GDP growth and population growth outpaced ecological construction.However,from 2015 to 2020,while GDP and population growth declined,the growth rate of ecological construction continued to rise.Additionally,the implementation of the plain afforestation project also contributed to the reduction in the scarcity of ecosystem regulating services.(3)The scarcity of ecosystem regulating services in Beijing exhibits positive spatial autocorrelation,indicating significant local spatial clustering.The scarcity index reveals that regions characterized by high-high-value clusters represent over 40%of the urban area,while areas with low-low-value clusters ac

关 键 词：调节服务 稀缺性 演变特征 驱动因素 空间自相关 地理探测器 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]