外部冲击会改变产品出口市场结构吗?--以医疗产品为例  

Will External Shocks Alter the Market Structure of Product Exports?A Case Study of Medical Products

作　　者：茹玉骢 郑玟静 RU Yucong;ZHENG Wenjing(School of International Business,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院,上海201620

出　　处：《南京工程学院学报(社会科学版)》2024年第3期48-58,共11页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology:Social Science Edition

基　　金：上海市社科规划一般课题“新冠疫情下重大出口冲击对我国外贸发展模式的长期影响研究”(2020BJB016);国家社科基金规划项目“双向FDI促进‘双循环’新格局构建的理论机制与实现路径研究”(22BJL104)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒感染疫情冲击对医疗产品需求和全球供应链都产生了长期影响。本研究以医疗行业为例,基于寡头市场企业进入与退出的视角,利用世界卫生组织(WHO)和世界海关组织(WCO)编制的新型冠状病毒感染疫情医疗用品清单进行分组的准自然实验,采用双重差分方法考察外部冲击对我国医疗产品出口竞争力的影响。基于2017至2023年联合国贸易和发展会议(UNCTAD)的HS6位码产品-年份-出口目的国进出口面板数据的实证研究发现,新型冠状病毒感染疫情冲击改变了国内外企业的生产相对成本,而我国相对有效的防疫政策使得疫情公共卫生冲击对我国医疗产品在出口目的国市场份额的扩大产生了显著正向的持续性影响。这种影响受制于出口目的国经济发展水平、受冲击程度以及产品出口技术复杂度或技术含量。The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a lasting impact on the demand for medical products and on global supply chains.This paper takes the medical industry as an example,based on the perspective of the market entry and exit in oligopolistic market.A grouped natural experiment was conducted based on the World Health Organization(WHO)and World Customs Organization(WCO)COVID-19 medical supplies lists,employing a difference-in-differences approach.An empirical analysis using HS6 product-level export data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD)from 2017 to 2023 reveals that the COVID-19 pandemic altered the relative production costs for domestic and international firms.China's relatively effective epidemic prevention policies have had a significant and lasting positive impact on its market share in export destinations for medical products.This impact varies according to the economic development level of the export destination countries,the extent of the shock,and the technological complexity or content of the exported products.

关 键 词：外部冲击 市场份额 出口市场结构 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F124[经济管理—世界经济]