35~75岁居民心血管病高危风险预测模型研究  

A prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease among residents aged 35 to 75 years

作　　者：周国营 邢丽丽[1] 苏颖[1] 刘宏杰[1] 刘赫[1] 王迪[1] 薛锦峰 戴威 汪静[1] 杨兴华[2] ZHOU Guoying;XING Lili;SU Ying;LIU Hongjie;LIU He;WANG Di;XUE Jinfeng;DAI Wei;WANG Jing;YANG Xinghua(Dongcheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100009,China;School of Public Health,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100069,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市东城区疾病预防控制中心,北京100009 [2]首都医科大学公共卫生学院,北京100069

出　　处：《预防医学》2025年第1期12-16,共5页China Preventive Medicine Journal

基　　金：国家卫生和计划生育委员会和财政部重大公共卫生服务项目(Z135080000022)。

摘　　要：目的建立35~75岁居民心血管病(CVD)高危风险预测模型,为完善CVD防控措施提供参考。方法于2018—2023年采用分层随机抽样方法抽取北京市东城区35~75岁常住居民为调查对象,通过问卷调查、体格检查和实验室检测收集人口学信息、生活方式、腰围和血生化指标等资料。采用多因素logistic回归模型筛选35~75岁居民CVD高危风险的影响因素,建立CVD高危风险预测模型,采用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评价预测效果。结果调查6968人,其中男性2821人,占40.49%;女性4147人,占59.51%。年龄为(59.92±9.33)岁。检出CVD高危风险1155人,检出率为16.58%。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,性别、年龄、吸烟、中心性肥胖、收缩压、空腹血糖、三酰甘油和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇是35~75岁居民CVD高危风险的影响因素(均P<0.05)。建立的预测模型ROC曲线下面积为0.849(95%CI:0.834~0.863),灵敏度为0.693,特异度为0.863,区分度较好。结论通过人口学特征、生活方式和血生化指标等8个因素构建的CVD高危风险预测模型对35~75岁居民具有较好的预测价值。Objective To establish a prediction model for high-risk cardiovascular disease(CVD)among residents aged 35 to 75 years,so as to provide the basis for improving CVD prevention and control measures.Methods Permanent res-idents aged 35 to 75 years were selected from Dongcheng District,Beijing Municipality using the stratified random sam-pling method from 2018 to 2023.Demographic information,lifestyle,waist circumference and blood biochemical indica-tors were collected through questionnaire surveys,physical examinations and laboratory tests.Influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years were identified using a multivariable logistic regression model,and a pre-diction model for high-risk CVD was established.The predictive effect was evaluated using the receiver operating charac-teristic(ROC)curve.Results A total of 6968 individuals were surveyed,including 2821 males(40.49%)and 4147 females(59.51%),and had a mean age of(59.92±9.33)years.There were 1155 high-risk CVD population,with a detec-tion rate of 16.58%.Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that gender,age,smoking,central obesity,systolic blood pressure,fasting blood glucose,triglyceride and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were influencing factors for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years(all P<0.05).The area under the ROC curve of the established predic-tion model was 0.849(95%CI:0.834-0.863),with a sensitivity of 0.693 and a specificity of 0.863,indicating good dis-crimination.Conclusion The model constructed by eight factors including demographic characteristics,lifestyle and blood biochemical indicators has good predictive value for high-risk CVD among residents aged 35 to 75 years.

关 键 词：心血管病 高危人群 受试者操作特征曲线 风险预测 

分 类 号：R54[医药卫生—心血管疾病]