基建融资错配与“重生产轻消费”下的经济运行态势分析——展望中国经济增长新周期  

Analysis of the Economic Operation Situation under the Mismatch of Infrastructure Financing and"Heavy Production and Light Consumption":Looking Forward to the New Cycle of China's Economic Growth

作　　者：清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院(ACCEPT)宏观预测课题组 李稻葵[2] 刘培林 厉克奥博 李冰[2] 郭美新 陆琳 吴舒钰 Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking(ACCEPT),Tsinghua University

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]清华大学中国经济思想与实践研究院

出　　处：《改革》2025年第1期1-15,共15页Reform

摘　　要：中国经济潜在需求和供给大,长期增长潜力巨大,但目前面临基建融资错配与“重生产轻消费”两大基础性问题,导致实际经济增速低于潜在水平。必须尽快通过进一步全面深化改革解决这两大问题,才能确保到2035年基本实现现代化。基建融资错配指的是基建投资的长期资产与短期要还款的负债不匹配,迫使地方政府在短期内需筹措足够财政资金以偿还到期债务,引致经济收缩;“重生产轻消费”指的是地方政府长期重投资、重生产、重供给、轻消费、轻需求的偏好,导致重复投资、产能过剩、产业迭代缓慢等一系列问题。党的二十届三中全会和2024年中央经济工作会议已经明确提出调整改革的方向,各部门和地方政府亟须加力加快落地实施具体改革政策,包括全面取消房地产限购,争取在三年内彻底解决地方债问题,短期内扩大消费补贴力度和范围,构建充分重视消费和需求的管理体制。China's economy has substantial potential demand and supply,with enormous long-term growth prospects.However,it is currently facing two fundamental issues:infrastructure financing mismatch and the production-centered economic institutions.These problems have caused actual economic growth to fall below its potential level.To ensure the achievement of basic modernization by 2035,these two issues must be addressed through comprehensive reforms as soon as possible.Infrastructure financing mismatch refers to the imbalance between the long-term assets in infrastructure investments and the short-term liabilities that need to be repaid,forcing local governments to generate enough fiscal funds in the short term to repay maturing debt,resulting in economic contraction.The production-centered economic institutions refer to the long-standing preference of local governments for heavy investment,production,and supply,while neglecting consumption and demand.This has led to repeated investments,excess capacity,slow industrial upgrading,and other issues.The Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference in 2024 have clearly outlined the direction for reform.Various departments and local governments urgently need to strengthen and accelerate the implementation of specific reform policies,including the complete removal of real estate purchase restrictions,resolving local government debt issues within three years,expanding the scope and intensity of consumption subsidies in the short term,and establishing a management system that better emphasizes consumption and demand.We have strong reason to believe that,with the implementation of these reforms,China's economy is likely to restart a new upward cycle and gradually return to its potential growth rate.

关 键 词：基建融资错配 经济发展 经济增速 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]