人民币汇率波动与合理均衡水平的多重视角  

Multiple Perspectives on RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Reasonable Equilibrium Levels

作　　者：鄂志寰[1] E Zhihuan(Vice President,Bank of China Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国银行研究院

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2024年第11期97-104,共8页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：本文分析2024年人民币对美元汇率的波动特征及其合理均衡水平,指出人民币汇率的波动与外部经济环境和国内经济增长紧密相关,其阶段性特征明显,经历了稳定期、升值期和双向波动期。当前,人民币汇率的合理均衡水平受到市场供需、货币政策耦合度和市场预期偏离度的影响。文章还探讨了人民币国际化对汇率的影响,以及宏观政策如何支持实体经济发展。最后,本文强调了推动人民币成为强大货币的重要性,以及在国际金融体系中提升人民币地位的策略。This paper analyzes the volatility characteristics of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and its reasonable equilibrium level in 2024,pointing out that the volatility of the RMB exchange rate is closely related to the external economic environment and domestic economic growth,and that it has obvious phasing characteristics,having gone through a period of stabilization,appreciation,and two-way volatility.At present,the reasonable equilibrium level of RMB exchange rate is affected by market supply and demand,the coupling degree of monetary policy and the deviation degree of market expectation.The article also discusses the impact of RMB internationalization on the exchange rate and how macro policy supports the development of the real economy.Finally,the article emphasizes the importance of promoting the RMB as a strong currency and the strategies to enhance the status of the RMB in the international financial system.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 合理均衡水平 国际化 宏观政策 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]