淄博市中长期需水预测分析  

Forecast Analysis of Medium and Long-term Water Demand in Zibo

作　　者：金梦杰 丁厚钢 燕双建 JIN Mengjie;DING Hougang;YAN Shuangjian(Hydrology Center of Zibo Municipality,Zibo,Shandong 255000,China)

机构地区：[1]淄博市水文中心,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《山东水利》2024年第12期71-73,共3页Shandong Water Resources

摘　　要：根据淄博市人口、经济社会发展速度,考虑到未来科技进步、体制机制创新等因素,以2020年现状用水和节水水平为基准,采用定额法或趋势法,分别对淄博市近期2025年、远期2035年进行了需水预测,其中农田及林业灌溉需水按照平水年(50%)、枯水年(75%)、特枯水年(95%)3种保证率分别进行需水预测,预测结果合理可靠。Based on the population,economic and social development of Zibo,taking into account the future scientific and technological progress,institutional innovation and other factors,this paper takes the current water consumption and water saving in 2020 as the basis,adopts the norm method or the trend method,and predicts the water demand in the near future in 2025 and the long term in 2035.The water demand for farmland and forestry irrigation was predicted according to the three guarantee rates of normal water year(50%),low water year(75%)and extremely low water year(95%),and the prediction results were reasonable and reliable.

关 键 词：淄博市 水资源 需水预测 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]