理查德·贝茨预警情报理论研究  

Research on Richard K.Betts'Warning Intelligence Theory

作　　者：周柏林 高金虎 Zhou Bailin;Gao Jinhu(International Studies College,National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第1期9-19,共11页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学重大项目“新时代巩固提高一体化国家安全情报体系和能力问题研究”(编号:2023-SKJJ-A-010);2022年国防科技大学教育教学重点研究项目“基于深度学习理论培塑军事情报专业本科学员学术素养的《情报文化》课程改革研究”(编号:U2022208)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]理查德·贝茨是美国杰出情报理论专家,尤以其预警情报理论为学界所瞩目,但现有研究深度有限,缺乏结合当今预警问题的时代关照。文章结合时代安全特征,考察贝茨预警情报理论的现实意义,以供我国情报理论研究和实践工作借鉴。[研究方法]细读文本并开展比较研究,通过研读文献提炼贝茨预警理论核心观点,对比预警领域理论发展近况,归纳贝茨预警理论特点,思考对我预警情报工作的启示及意义。[研究结果/结论]贝茨对预警情报工作见解独到,深度透视了突袭不可避免、预警困境难破解的根源,剖析了现有情报分析方法和改革对策的内在局限,但囿于悲观态度未能就完善预警情报工作提出针对性建议,对预警情报的职能同样存在片面认识。[Research purpose]Richard K.Betts is an outstanding expert in intelligence theory in the United States,particularly known for his warning intelligence theory.While his work has attracted academic attention,the depth of existing research is limited,and there is a lack of contemporary attention to warning issues.Combining the security characteristics of the time,this article studies the practical significance of Betts'warning intelligence theory,in order to provide reference for China's intelligence theory research and practical work.[Research method]This article reflects on Betts'warning intelligence theory to enlighten significance to China's intelligence practice by conducting comparative research through carefully reading the text,summarizing its core viewpoints,comparing current literature in relevant field,and generalizing its characteristics.[Research result/conclusion]Betts has unique insights on warning intelligence,providing a deep perspective into the root causes of inevitable surprise attacks and difficult to solve warning difficulties.Betts analyzes the inherent limitations of existing intelligence analysis methods and reform measures,but due to his pessimistic attitude,he has not been able to provide targeted suggestions for improving warning intelligence.Betts'understanding of the warning intelligence function is also narrow.

关 键 词：理查德·贝茨 预警情报 预警情报理论 预警情报工作 情报分析 

分 类 号：E87[军事—军事情报学]