重庆三峡库区农业碳排放脱钩效应及驱动因素  

Decoupling effects and drivers of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing

作　　者：周恒阳 张军以[1,2] 彭国川 ZHOU Hengyang;ZHANG Junyi;PENG Guochuan(School of Geography and Tourism,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Chongqing Key Laboratory of Surface Processes and Ecological Restoration in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,Chongqing 401331,China;Institute of Ecology and Environmental Resources,Chongqing Academy of Social Sciences,Chongqing 400020,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆401331 [2]三峡库区地表过程与生态修复重庆市重点实验室,重庆401331 [3]重庆社会科学院生态与环境资源研究所,重庆400020

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报(中英文)》2025年第1期14-24,共11页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY156);重庆市教委人文社科重点项目(22SKGH090);重庆市哲学社会科学创新工程研究重点项目(2024CXZD27)资助。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标背景下,探究重庆三峡库区农业碳排放特征及其驱动因素,可为库区低碳农业发展提供科学依据。采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的因子法测算2015—2022年重庆三峡库区农业碳排放量,系统分析库区农业碳排放量和强度时空分异特征,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析库区农业碳排放量与农业经济增长的脱钩关系,并进一步运用LMDI(logarithmic mean divisia index)模型解析库区农业碳排放驱动因素。结果表明:重庆三峡库区农业碳排放总量整体呈波动降低趋势,农业碳排放总量从2015年的645.89万t降至2022年的620.74万t,库区农业碳排放主要来源为农田土壤碳排放和畜禽养殖碳排放。库区农业碳排放强度总体呈下降趋势,各区县间碳排放强度差距逐渐缩小。2015—2022年,库区农业经济与农业碳排放量整体上呈脱钩关系。随着农业生产的恢复与发展,农业产值增长,农业碳排放量增加。脱钩关系以2019年为节点表现为由强脱钩向弱脱钩转变。农业生产效率、农业人口规模、农业产业结构对库区农业碳排放量的增长具有抑制作用,而农业经济规模对农业碳排放量的增长则具有促进作用。基于以上结果,本文提出减少禽畜养殖业碳排放量、控制农田土壤利用碳排放量和发挥农业碳排放驱动因素抑制作用等相关建议,以期为库区低碳农业发展提供理论依据。Concerning carbon peaks and carbon neutrality goals,exploring the characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions and their driving factors in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing can provide a scientific basis for developing low-carbon agriculture in the reservoir area.The agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 were calculated,the temporal and spatial differences in agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing were systematically analyzed,and the decoupling relationship between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic growth was analyzed using the Tapio decoupling model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)carbon emission factor method.Furthermore,the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI)model was applied to analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing.The results showed that the total agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed an overall fluctuation reduction trend,and the total agricultural carbon emissions decreased from 6.46×10^(6) t in 2015 to 6.21×10^(6) t in 2022.The main source of agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing is farmland soil use,enteric fermentation and manure management processes in livestock and poultry farming were also major carbon emission sources.The agricultural carbon emission intensity in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing showed a decreasing trend,and the gap of carbon emission intensity among different districts and counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing gradually narrowed.Overall,the decoupling relationship between agricultural economic growth and agricultural carbon emissions in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Chongqing from 2015 to 2022 showed a decoupling relationship.The total value of agricultural production increased,and agricultu

关 键 词：三峡库区 农业碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型 驱动因素 

分 类 号：X502[环境科学与工程—环境工程]