气候变化和人类活动对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的量化分析  

Quantitative analysis of NDVI changes in Mu Us Sandy Land by climate change and human activities

作　　者：常文静 丛士翔 王融融 丁旭东 余海龙[1] 黄菊莹[2] CHANG Wenjing;CONG Shixiang;WANG Rongrong;DING Xudong;YU Hailong;HUANG Juying(School of Geography and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China;School of Ecology and Environment,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学地理科学与规划学院,宁夏银川750021 [2]宁夏大学生态环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2025年第1期63-74,共12页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41961001)资助。

摘　　要：气候变化和人类活动是驱动植被动态变化的两大关键影响因子。归一化植被指数(NDVI)是评估植被动态变化的有效指标,能够合理地评价生态系统变化及其可持续性。基于SPOT/VEG⁃ETATION NDVI时间序列数据、气象数据和地表覆盖数据,借助GIS空间分析、相关性分析及残差分析等方法,探讨了1998—2019年毛乌素沙地NDVI时空演变特征及其驱动机制,厘定了气候变化和人类活动两大驱动因素对毛乌素沙地NDVI变化的相对贡献率。结果表明:(1)1998—2019年毛乌素沙地NDVI整体以0.0067·a^(-1)的速率增长,空间分布上表现为由西北向东南逐渐递增的分布趋势。但NDVI增长整体持续性不强,未来可能出现波动。(2)气候变化与人类活动共同驱动了毛乌素沙地NDVI的增长。其中,NDVI变化与降水呈显著正相关,而与气温的相关性则较弱。大型生态工程的实施与气候要素的耦合驱动了毛乌素沙地86.30%的植被改善,和已有生态建设工程成效研究结论相符。(3)归因分析结果表明,人类活动促进了毛乌素沙地83.20%的NDVI增长,而降水量驱动了毛乌素沙地73.14%的NDVI增长,降水量与人类活动的耦合作用对NDVI的影响更为显著。Climate change and human activities are the primary factors influencing vegetation dynamics.The normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)serves as an effective indicator for assessing vegetation changes,enabling evaluation of ecosystem dynamics and sustainability.Using SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI time series data,meteorological data,and land cover data,this study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land,China,from 1998 to 2019.Employing GIS spatial analysis,correlation analysis,and residual analysis,the study quantifies the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to NDVI variations.The findings reveal the following:(1)From 1998 to 2019,interannual NDVI in the Mu Us Sandy Land exhibited a significant upward trend,with a growth rate of 0.0067·a−1.Spatially,NDVI displayed a gradual increase from northwest to southeast.However,the overall sustainability of NDVI growth was weak,indicating potential future fluctuations.(2)Both climate change and human activities jointly contributed to NDVI growth.NDVI changes were significantly positively correlated with precipitation,while correlations with temperature were weaker.Large-scale ecological projects and the interplay of climatic factors accounted for 86.30%of the observed vegetation improvement,aligning with existing studies on the impact of ecological projects.(3)Attribution analysis demonstrated that human activities contributed to 83.20%of NDVI growth,while precipitation accounted for 73.14%.The coupling effect of precipitation and human activities had a more pronounced influence on NDVI.

关 键 词：毛乌素沙地 植被NDVI 气候变化 人类活动 相对贡献率 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]