冷战后美国朝核政策的嬗变及其深层困境——基于强制外交与威慑理论的考量  

The Dilemma and Evolution of US Policy on North Korea Nuclear Issues after Cold War:An Analysis Based on The Theories of Coercive Diplomacy and Deterrence

作　　者：付宇 Fu Yu

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院国际关系系,天津300350

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2025年第1期1-18,I0002,共19页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目阶段性成果(编号:0502020402);南开大学亚洲研究中心资助项目(编号:AS2418)。

摘　　要：冷战结束远未消弭朝鲜半岛的安全困境与军事对峙。自1993年第一次朝核危机爆发以来,美国不断加大对朝鲜的围堵施压,却未能阻止朝鲜跨越“核门槛”。当前,美朝核政策重点正从强制朝鲜弃核转向管控朝核风险、维护美在大国竞争与东北亚格局中的主导权,但亦未取得预想成效。冷战后美国的朝核政策同时包含了强制外交与威慑的意涵,其困境主要源于对朝政权基本安全诉求的严重忽视,以及对朝鲜半岛复杂情势与历史纠葛的简单化处理。文章在借鉴罗伯特·杰维斯等人对西方传统强制外交与威慑理论局限性批判的基础上,进一步将影响美朝核政策嬗变的因素区分为国内、地区和国际三个层级,以期更好解析与评估美国朝核政策嬗变的内在机理和走向。The security dilemma and the military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula have not been resolved after the Cold War.The United States continues to increase its pressure and containment against North Korea since the outbreak of the first North Korean nuclear crisis in 1993,but this has not prevented North Korea from crossing the nuclear threshold.At present,the main objectives of US policy on North Korean nuclear issues are shifting from coercing North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapon program to controlling existing North Korean nuclear risks and maintaining US primacy in the peninsular affairs,which has also failed to produce the expected results.This article argues that US policy on North Korean nclear issues has both the coercive and deterrent policy implications,and the various factors influencing US policy are categorised into the domestic,regional and international levels.The article also concludes that the dilemma of US policy is mainly due to the fact that it seriously ignores the interests of North Korea.

关 键 词：强制外交 威慑理论 美朝关系 深层困境 东北亚格局 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]