深圳市HIV⁃1主要流行毒株的系统动力学回溯研究  

Retrospective study on system dynamics of HIV⁃1 main epidemic strains in Shenzhen

作　　者：卢春芸 张能德 陈鑫 闫兆祥 于德娥 LU Chunyun;ZHANG Nengde;CHEN Xin;YAN Zhaoxiang;YU De'e(School of Public Health,Heinz Mehlhorn Academician Workstation,Hainan Medical University,Haikou 571199,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南医科大学公共卫生学院,Heinz Mehlhorn院士工作站,海南省海口市571199

出　　处：《广西医学》2024年第12期1829-1839,共11页Guangxi Medical Journal

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金(824RC519)。

摘　　要：目的利用系统动力学方法分析深圳市HIV⁃1主要流行毒株的有效再生数(Re)。方法从HIV Sequence Database下载2005—2019年深圳市新报告HIV感染者的HIV⁃1基因序列。对序列进行整理、亚型判定后,利用中国艾滋病病毒基因序列数据平台进行分簇、分组。针对各个亚型亚簇的分组序列集构建最大似然树后,利用TempEst v1.5.3软件进行遗传进化和时间的线性回归分析。应用BEAST v2.6.3软件进行系统动力学分析,计算Re。结果(1)最终纳入6619条序列进行分析,其中CRF01_AE亚型2390条、CRF07_BC亚型2886条、CRF55_01B亚型983条、CRF08_BC亚型294条、CRF59_01B亚型66条。(2)Re均值计算结果显示,CRF01_AE、CRF07_BC、CRF55_01B亚型中,Re均值最高的分别是CRF01_AE_C1⁃1(1.357)、CRF07_BC_N⁃14(1.553)、CRF55_01B_C1(1.464);CRF08_BC和CRF59_01B亚型具有较高的Re均值,分别为1.511和1.574。(3)动态Re计算结果显示,CRF01_AE各亚簇亚组的Re值整体呈下降趋势,2010年后Re值在1上下波动;CRF59_01B和CRF55_01B的Re值于2018年后均呈上升趋势,且Re值>1;2019年CRF07_BC的10个亚组和CRF08_BC的Re值>1。结论深圳市HIV⁃1不同亚型的传播能力不同,需要重点监测Re>1的HIV⁃1毒株的流行动态,以指导HIV⁃1精准防控。Objective To analyze the effective reproduction number(Re)of HIV⁃1 main epidemic strains in Shenzhen by using system dynamics method.Methods HIV⁃1 gene sequence of new reports of HIV infected individuals in Shenzhen from 2005 to 2019 was downloaded from the HIV Sequence Database.After sorting out the sequence and determining the subtype,the HIV Gene Sequences Database was employed to perform clustering and grouping.The TempEst v1.5.3 software was used to perform linear regression analysis of genetic evolution and time after the construction of maximum likelihood tree for the grouped sequence sets of various subtypes subclusters.The BEAST v2.6.3 software was run to perform system dynamics analysis and calculate Re.Results(1)A total of 6619 sequences were enrolled finally to perform analysis,therein there were 2390 CRF01_AE subtype sequences,2886 CRF07_BC subtype sequences,983 CRF55_01B subtype sequences,294 CRF08_BC subtype sequences,and 66 CRF59_01B subtype sequences.(2)The results of Re average value calculation revealed that among CRF01_AE,CRF07_BC,and CRF55_01B subtypes,the highest Re average value went to CRF01_AE_C1⁃1(1.357),CRF07_BC_N⁃14(1.553),and CRF55_01B_C1(1.464),respectively;furthermore,CRF08_BC and CRF59_01B subtypes exerted relatively high Re average values of 1.511 and 1.574,respectively.(3)The results of dynamic Re calculation indicated that the Re values of various CRF01_AE subclusters subgroups exhibited an overall downward trend,and the value of Re fluctuated around 1 after 2010.The Re values of CRF59_01B and CRF55_01B demonstrated an upward trend after 2018,and were more than 1.In 2019,10 subgroups of CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC expressed Re value>1.Conclusion The transmission ability of different subtypes of HIV⁃1 in Shenzhen is different.It is necessary to focus on monitoring the epidemic dynamics of HIV⁃1 strains with Re>1 to guide the precise prevention and control of HIV⁃1.

关 键 词：人类免疫缺陷病毒1型 有效再生数 分子簇 系统动力学 传播能力 

分 类 号：R183.9[医药卫生—流行病学]