农业现代化评价:基于农业资本的关键指标构建与应用  

Agricultural Modernization Evaluation:A Key Indicator Based on Agricultural Capital and Application

作　　者：易福金 支晓旭 YI Fujin;ZHI Xiaoxu

机构地区：[1]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,杭州310058

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2025年第1期4-22,共19页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目“农业综合天气指数保险研究与实施”(编号:72261147758);国家社会科学基金项目“有效提升农业风险管理需求研究”(编号:22VRC178);浙江省哲学社会科学领军人才培育项目“农业安全生产支持政策体系研究”(编号:24YJRC01ZD)。

摘　　要：农业现代化是“十四五”时期农业部门的主要发展目标和重要考核指标。然而,农业现代化概念的多元化增加了评价工作的主观性、复杂性和不可比性。本文基于农业资本构建了农业现代化评价的关键指标,从经济学视角加深了对农业现代化的理解。首先,本文梳理与农业现代化相关的概念、经济学内涵和演变,其次提出利用单位面积资本环比构建动态评价农业现代化的指标,并做国别、区域间和省际比较,最后使用ARIMA模型对农业现代化进程进行预测。结果表明,与国际农业现代化先进水平相比,至2025年有条件的地区率先基本实现农业现代化的目标有很大不确定性,至2035年全国基本实现农业现代化的任务同样艰巨,约有五分之一的省份农业发展较为滞后,需要通过大规模投资来加速这一进程。Agricultural modernization is the main development goal and evaluation index of the 14th Five-Year Plan periodHowever,the concept of agricultural modernization has become increasingly broad in its meaning,which renders its evaluation much more subjective,complicated,and incomparableThis study aims to advance the understandings of agricultural modernization from an economic perspective by constructing the key indicators for evaluation based on capitalFor this purpose,this study first identifies the concepts,economic implications,and transitions associated with agricultural modernizationThe paper then applies the annulus of capital per mu as a key indicator to dynamically evaluate agricultural modernizationThe paper makes comparisons among countries,regions,and provincesAnd lastly,the paper makes predictions of agricultural modernization using the ARIMA modelThe results show that,compared with modern agriculture in developed countries,uncertainty remains regarding the goal of achieving basic agricultural modernization in areas with qualified conditions by 2025Similarly,it’s difficult to achieve basic agricultural modernization nationwide by 2035,with about one-fifth of the provinces lagging behind and still needing large-scale investment to accelerate their modernization proces.

关 键 词：农业现代化 农业资本 单位面积资本环比 评价指标 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]