投资者价值感知与数字金融市场演化——基于余额宝季报数据的实证  

Investor Value Perception and Digital Financial Market Evolution——Empirical Evidence Based on Yu’ebao Quarterly Report Data

作　　者：夏雨[1] 魏明侠[1] 刘小天 XIA Yu;WEI Mingxia;LIU Xiaotian(School of Management,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学管理学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第11期204-210,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19FGLB043);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学创新团队资助项目(2019-CXTD-04);河南省高校人文社科重点研究基地项目(2019-JD-04)。

摘　　要：在动态复杂的数字经济背景下,数字金融的创新不仅影响投资者的投资行为,还对数字金融行业的发展起着决定性作用。本文从投资者价值感知的视角,基于演化博弈理论探究投资者投资行为策略和数字金融平台创新行为策略的演化均衡;然后,以余额宝基金2014—2020年的季度面板数据为样本,构建余额宝市场的系统动力学模型进而实证理论结果。研究表明,投资者和数字金融平台策略选择的演化稳定状态受对方策略比例的影响;在一定条件下,数字金融系统演化均衡点共5个,但稳定点只有3个;在其他参数不变的情况下,当投资者价值感知系数增大时,投资者群体更趋向于采取“平台投资”策略,数字金融系统向{平台投资,创新}演化。受平台创新和投资者价值感知的影响,余额宝市场净资产数量呈先上升后下降的演化趋势;演化博弈中可能的演化稳定点在余额宝市场发展过程中均有所体现;投资者价值感知对余额宝市场良性演化具有正向影响。In the context of a dynamic and complex digital economy,the healthy development of digital finance,as the blood of the digital economy,is very important to the whole economic system.Digital finance has gradually penetrated every field of social economy,changed people’s mode of production,lifestyle,and consumption behavior,and produced new forms of financial business and innovative service methods.These digital financial innovations have become the source of the development of the digital financial industry,and their evolutionary path and results also affect the development process and direction of the entire financial industry.However,investment behavior will occur only when investors realize that digital financial innovation can bring wealth appreciation and improve financial efficiency.Therefore,investors’perception of digital financial innovation is the main driving force for digital financial innovation.Based on the above background,from the perspective of investors’perceived value,this paper uses the method of the evolutionary game to build an evolutionary game model composed of digital financial platforms and investors and analyzes the evolutionary path and evolution law of digital financial platform’s innovation behavior and investors’investment behavior.Firstly,considering the value perception of investors,this paper first adopts the method of the evolutionary game to construct an evolutionary game model composed of a digital financial platform group and an investor group.On this basis,the paper analyzes the evolutionary results,evolutionary paths,and evolutionary rules of the innovation behavior of digital financial platforms and investors’investment behavior.Secondly,taking the quarterly panel data of Tianhong Yu’ebao Fund from 2014 to the third quarter of 2020 as samples,relevant variables are selected from the four aspects of scale share,platform innovation,investors’financial literacy,and traditional finance to describe the evolution of Yu’ebao market and its main influencing factor

关 键 词：数字金融 投资者 平台 余额宝 演化博弈 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F832.39[经济管理—金融学]