安全焦虑与战略反扑:美国大选后台湾当局对美台关系的危机防控及其影响  

Security Anxiety and Strategic Counter-attack:the Taiwan Authorities'Crisis Prevention on U.S.-Taiwan Relations after the 2024 U.S.Election

作　　者：钟厚涛 Zhong Houtao(School of National Security,University of International Relations;Research Team for Strategic Taiwan Contingency Planning and Key Question Innovation,University of International Relations;Law Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院国家安全学院 [2]国际关系学院对台战略预置和重点问题创新研究团队 [3]海峡两岸关系法学研究会

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第4期13-23,共11页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金后期项目“美国对台湾当局海洋政策的影响研究”(22FZZB009)。

摘　　要：特朗普在美国2024年大选胜出后,民进党当局面临多重安全焦虑,如特朗普的“笔尖论”思维将导致台湾工具性价值下滑、特朗普要求对台湾地区强行征收“保护费”将使台湾地区出现被掏空榨干的战略透支风险、特朗普现实主义的交易性思维将使台湾地区在战争边缘危机中遭遇被抛弃的风险。为防控危机,民进党当局通过加大对美军购、扩大对美进口等,积极迎合特朗普制造业回流计划,化解美国战略疑虑。民进党当局加大对美贴靠将面临结构性困局,如特朗普逆全球化政策与台湾外向型经济体的矛盾,台湾当局“亲美”与岛内民众“疑美”的两极化分野。未来台湾当局只有放弃“倚外谋独”幻想,才能为台湾地区发展迎来新机。After Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S.election,the DPP authorities face multiple security anxieties.For example,Trump's"Pen Tip Theory"will lead to a decline in Taiwan's instrumental value,and Trump's request to forcibly impose"Protection Fees"on Taiwan will bring Taiwan the risk of being drained of the strategic overdraft,and Trump's realist transactional approach will put Taiwan at risk of being abandoned on the brink of struggles.To prevent and control the crisis,the DPP authorities actively catered to Trump's manufacturing reshoring plan and resolved U.S.strategic concerns by increasing military purchases and expanding imports from the U.S.The DPP authorities will face structural difficulties if they increase their reliance on the U.S.,such as the contradiction between Trump's anti-globalization policy and Taiwan's export-oriented economy,and the polarity between the Taiwan authorities'"pro-U.S."and Taiwan residents'"Doubting the U.S.".In the future,only by giving up the fantasy of"seeking independence by relying on foreign support"can the Taiwan region usher in new development opportunities.

关 键 词：安全焦虑 战略反扑 美国大选 民进党当局 笔尖论 疑赖论 疑美论 

分 类 号：D67[政治法律—政治学]