论特朗普新政府对台海局势影响的有限性  

On the Limited Impact of the Second Trump Administration on the Situation Across the Strait

作　　者：周文星 黄淑娅 Zhou Wenxing;Huang Shuya(School of International Studies,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第4期40-49,93,共11页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：2021年度国家社科基金青年项目“美国国会立法干涉台湾问题的规律、风险与对策研究(1973-2021)”(项目编号:21CGJ047);南京大学文科人工智能交叉研究计划(AI for HASS)专项课题资助的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国前总统特朗普以显著优势再度当选,为中美关系带来不确定性。独特的强人执政风格与交易型思维,将凸显特朗普个人因素形塑美国对华政策的关键作用。尽管特朗普新政府难以改变既定的对台政策框架,但在台湾问题上将逆转拜登政府以“价值理性”为主、“工具理性”为辅的思维,转向遏华和谋利双重目标的“工具理性”。基于此,特朗普新政府将以交易型思维处理台湾问题,既提升与台湾地区在军事防务、核心科技等领域的合作,又以台湾问题换取中国内地在经贸等议题上的让步。但美国内外挑战将约束特朗普新政府对台海事务的干涉方式与程度,预示美国对台海局势影响的有限性。放眼未来,中方持续增长的综合实力及其威慑力是处理台湾问题的关键所在。Former U.S.President Donald Trump has been re-elected with a significant advantage,bringing uncertainty to Sino-U.S.relations.Trump's strongman leadership style and transactional approach will highlight the significance of the individual-level factors in shaping U.S.China policy.The second Trump administration is unlikely to change the established U.S.policy framework on the Taiwan region.It will,however,reverse the mainly"value rationality"oriented approach supplemented by"instrumental rationality"that President Biden has adopted while addressing the Taiwan question.Instead,it will turn to"instrument rationality"for the dual goals of deterrence of China and profit-gaining.Based on this logic,the Trump administration is more likely to address the Taiwan question with a transactional approach.It will improve U.S.cooperation with the Taiwan region in terms of military,defense and core technologies on the one hand,and utilize the Taiwan question to negotiate with China for the latter's concessions on economy and trade.However,numerous internal and external challenges are expected to constrain the extent and manner of the Trump administration's involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs,suggesting the limitedness of U.S.impact on the situations across the Strait.In the future,the key to addressing the Taiwan question remains China's growing comprehensive strength and its deterrent capabilities.

关 键 词：特朗普对台政策 台湾问题 价值理性 工具理性 有限性 

分 类 号：D61[政治法律—政治学]