年龄结构、人口出生率与居民消费  

Population Age Structure,Birth Rate,and Residents′Consumption

作　　者：艾小青[1] 黄鑫 张蓓 AI Xiaoqing;HUANG Xin;ZHANG Bei(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Wedding Culture and Media Arts,China Civil Affairs University,Beijing 102600,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]民政职业大学婚礼文化与传媒艺术学院,北京102600

出　　处：《人口与发展》2025年第1期36-47,共12页Population and Development

摘　　要：研究基于我国1998—2021年的省级面板数据,考察年龄结构、人口出生率对居民消费的影响,并通过构建三变量交互项的双向固定效应模型进一步探究人口出生率的调节效应。结果表明:(1)少儿抚养比对居民消费有显著的促进作用,而老年抚养比有显著的抑制作用;(2)人口出生率对年龄结构与居民消费关系有显著的调节效应,它会通过改变居民消费结构、弱化收入对消费的正向效应和降低居民预防性储蓄这三个渠道起到调节作用;(3)人口出生率对年龄结构与居民消费关系的调节作用存在区域异质性和政策异质性。研究可为我国促进人口长期均衡发展,缓解人口老龄化,充分释放居民消费潜力,制定相关政策提供参考依据。Based on China′s provincial panel data from 1998 to 2021,this paper investigates the impact ofage structure and populationbirth rate on residents′consumption and further explores the regulating effect of population birth rate by constructing a two-way fixed effect model of three-variable interaction terms.The results show that:(1)the child dependency ratio has a significant promoting effect on household consumption,while the elderly dependency ratio has a significant inhibiting effect;(2)The birth rate has a significant regulating effect on the relationship between age structure and household consumption,which will play a regulating role by changing the consumption structure of residents,weakening the positive effect of income on consumption and reducing the precautionary savings of residents;(3)There are regional and policy heterogeneity in the regulating effect of birth rate on the relationship between age structure and household consumption.This study can provide a reference basis for our country to promote the long-term balanced development of the population,alleviate the aging of the population,fully release the consumption potential of residents,and formulate relevant policies.

关 键 词：年龄结构 人口出生率 居民消费 调节作用机制 

分 类 号：C913.3[经济管理]