基于区域综合风险评估的城市重点防卫区域选择  

Selection of key urban defense areas based on regional comprehensive risk assessment

作　　者：魏桦 王肖霞[1] 杨风暴[1] 贾琦 WEI Hua;WANG Xiaoxia;YANG Fengbao;JIA Qi(School of Information and Communication Engineering,North University of China,Taiyuan 030051,China)

机构地区：[1]中北大学信息与通信工程学院,山西太原030051

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2025年第1期60-68,共9页Command Control & Simulation

摘　　要：针对城市防御力量有限条件下如何选择高风险重点保卫区域,使有限力量效用最大化、城市风险最小化的问题,提出了一种基于区域综合风险评估的城市重点防卫区域选择方法。首先,从入侵方和防御方角度思考,构建合理的保卫目标风险评估指标体系;其次,基于等效能量思想提出了权积归一法来确定保卫目标风险指标的组合权重,进而计算目标风险值;接着,根据质心理论结合目标距离测度与重要程度构建目标分布加权质心计算模型,并以此为基准,建立离差矩阵计算区域目标分布离散度;最后,依据风险雷达图面积构造区域综合风险评估函数,并结合某城市Ⅰ~Ⅵ区目标情况对各区域的综合风险进行定量评估。结果表明,相比于目标风险耦合方法,该方法能够更准确地实现区域综合风险评估,为城市重点防卫区域选择及有限力量高效部署提供决策依据。Aiming at the problem of how to select high risk key defense area under the condition of limited urban defense force,to maximize the utility of limited force and minimize the urban risk,this paper proposes a method of selecting key defense area based on regional comprehensive risk assessment.Firstly,a reasonable risk assessment index system is constructed from the perspective of the intruder and the defender.Secondly,based on the idea of equivalent energy,the weight product normalization method is proposed to determine the combined weight of the target risk index,and then calculate the target risk value.Then,according to the centroid theory,the weighted centroid calculation model of target distribution is constructed,and the dispersion matrix is established to calculate the dispersion of regional target distribution.Finally,the regional comprehensive risk assessment function is constructed according to the area of risk radar map,and the comprehensive risk of each region is quantitatively assessed according to the target situation of districts Ⅰ to Ⅵ of a city.The results show that compared with the target risk coupling method,the proposed method can realize the regional comprehensive risk assessment more accurately,and provide decision-making basis for the selection of key urban defense areas and the efficient deployment of limited forces.

关 键 词：有限防御力量 区域综合风险 组合权值 分布离散度 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]