基于移动最小二乘法的阶跃型滑坡预警曲面模型  

Stepwise landslide warning surface model with moving least squares

作　　者：王伟[1,2] 丁聪[1,2] 刘世藩 姜宇航[1,2] 陈超 WANG Wei;DING Cong;LIU Shifan;JIANG Yuhang;CHEN Chao(Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Geotechnical Engineering Research Center of Jiangsu Province,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学江苏省岩土工程技术工程研究中心,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期95-102,120,共9页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(12072102)。

摘　　要：基于移动最小二乘法搭建阶跃型滑坡预警曲面模型,以三峡库区王家坡滑坡监测数据为例构建预警模型并验证了该模型用于滑坡阶跃预警的可行性。该模型通过移动最小二乘法拟合滑坡累计位移-监测期次曲线,利用拟合曲线导数信息确定滑坡阶跃变形区间,以区间二阶导数最大值点作为“类破坏点”获得当期降雨、前期降雨、位移速率阈值;根据“类破坏点”监测信息,利用移动最小二乘法建立滑坡阶跃变形发生的阈值曲面,以位移速率作为分级标准建立4级预警阈值曲面模型进行预警分析。王家坡滑坡验证结果表明,模型预警等级与滑坡实际位移情况相符,模型具有良好的预警效果,能实现高效准确的滑坡阶跃变形预警。Stepwise landslide warning surface model is presented based on moving least squares.Based on the monitoring data of the Wangjiapo landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area,the proposed model is set up,and its ability to provide early warning of the stepwise deformation is validated.The cumulative displacement-monitoring period curve is fitted via moving least squares,and its derivative is used to determine the range of the stepwise deformation during the landslide.The maximum point of its second derivative within the deformation range is taken as the“quasi-failure point”to obtain the current rainfall,previous rainfall,and displacement rate thresholds of each stepwise deformation.The threshold surface of the stepwise deformation is constructed with the monitoring information of the“quasi-failure point”by using moving least squares.A four-level warning threshold surface model is established with the displacement rate as the classification standard for early warning analysis.The validation results of the Wangjiapo landslide show that the warning level is consistent with the actual displacement of the landslide.The model has good early warning effect and enables warning of landslide stepwise deformation.

关 键 词：降雨型滑坡 阶跃变形 预警模型 移动最小二乘法 王家坡滑坡 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]