社会折现率及相关指标的实证研究  

Empirical Research on the Social Discount Rate and Related Indicators

作　　者：李立生 LI Lisheng(Galaxy Fund Management Co.Ltd.,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]银河基金管理有限公司,上海200120

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第1期98-104,共7页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：社会折现率(SDR)是投资评价和方案比较的关键指标。通过求解随机微分方程,提出用股票投资等价收益率和长期平均利率测算验证社会折现率的参考公式。基于西方主要经济体的数据,检验一些国家设定的社会折现率是否与计算结果相匹配,证明这种测算方法的可行性。在实证分析的过程中发现,利率与通货膨胀率之间存在二次非线性的回归关系,对传统的线性利率规则提出了质疑。The social discount rate(SDR)is a critical parameter of investment appraisal and alternative scheme comparison.Through solving stochastic differential equation,a reference formula of measuring the SDR was presented by means of the equivalent return on stock investment and the long-term interest rate.With the data of the main western economies for set by some countries concerned,the SDRs are checked to match the results of the calculation.Such a test proves the feasibility of this approach.In the process of empirical analysis,it is found that there is the quadratic nonlinear regression correlation between the interest rate and the inflation rate,which raises question on the traditional linear rule of determination of the interest rate.

关 键 词：社会折现率(SDR) 投资等价收益率 实证检验 非线性 利率规则 

分 类 号：F062.4[经济管理—政治经济学]