区域交通运输业碳排放测算及情景预测——以辽宁省为例  

Carbon Emission Estimation and Scenario Prediction ofRegional Transportation Industry:TakingLiaoning Province as an Example

作　　者：孙艳丽[1] 刘鑫 SUN Yanli;LIU Xin(School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报(社会科学版)》2024年第6期574-580,共7页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点委托项目(L24AWT012)。

摘　　要：为探讨区域交通运输业碳排放的变化趋势,以辽宁省为研究对象,采用STIRPAT模型扩展了区域交通运输业碳排放的影响因素,并选取了人均GDP、城镇化率、客货运周转量、私家车保有量、二级及以上等级公路里程、单位GDP能耗这6项驱动因素进行了定量分析。研究表明:人均GDP、城镇化率、客货运周转量、私家车保有量、二级及以上等级公路里程每增加1%,分别引起碳排放量增加0.066%、0.238%、0.084%、0.024%、0.238%;单位GDP能耗每增加1%,引起碳排放量变化为0.093%。根据研究结果设置了8种情景,预测了辽宁省交通运输业未来的碳排放量并提出了碳减排建议。In order to discuss the change trend of carbon emissions in regional transport industry,Liaoning Province was selected as the research object,and STIRPAT model was adopted to expand the influencing factors of carbon emissions in regional transport industry.Six driving factors,including per capita GDP,urbanization rate,passenger and freight turnover,private car ownership,highway mileage of grade 2 and above,and energy consumption per unit GDP,were selected for quantitative analysis.The results show that each 1%increase in per capita GDP,urbanization rate,passenger and freight turnover,private car ownership,and highway mileage of grade 2 and above will increase carbon emissions by 0.066%,0.238%,0.084%,0.024%and 0.238%,respectively.Each 1%change in energy consumption per unit of GDP causes a 0.093%change in carbon emissions.According to the research results,eight scenarios are set up to predict the future carbon emissions of the transportation industry in Liaoning Province and carbon emission reduction recommendations are proposed.

关 键 词：交通运输业 碳排放 STIRPAT 岭回归 情景分析 

分 类 号：F207[经济管理—国民经济]