中国区域经济周期收敛性及其影响因素研究  

Research on the Convergence of China’s Regional Economic Cycle and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：马绍雄 孙焱林[2] Ma Shaoxiong;Sun Yanlin(School of Economics and Management,East China Jiaotong University,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华东交通大学经济管理学院,南昌330013 [2]华中科技大学经济学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《统计与决策》2025年第2期89-95,共7页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(20BJY012)。

摘　　要：文章利用1992—2021年我国省级面板数据,探究了中国区域经济周期β收敛、σ收敛、俱乐部收敛特征及其影响因素,并重新划分经济协同发展的新区域。研究发现:第一,上海、广东等少部分省份呈现β收敛态势,经济周期波动向稳,大部分省份呈现β发散态势,大起大落式周期波动仍存在。第二,中国经济周期整体长期呈现σ收敛态势,各省份之间经济周期波动差异收窄,但过程存在阶段性收敛与发散交替。第三,传统划分的经济区域未出现经济周期俱乐部收敛的态势,重新划分的新东部、新中部、新北部和新西部四个经济区域表现出较好的俱乐部收敛特征。第四,初始波动、经济体量和产业结构是经济周期β收敛稳健的影响因素;中国宏观调控以逆周期调节为主,财政政策和货币政策促进了经济周期σ收敛,其中,财政政策的影响相对更大;体制改革诱发的初始波动是划分俱乐部最重要的因素。Based on the provincial panel data of China from 1992 to 2021,this paper explores the characteristics and influencing factors ofβconvergence,σconvergence and club convergence of China’s regional economic cycle,and reclassifies the new regions of coordinated economic development.The results go as the following:First,a small number of provinces such as Shanghai and Guangdong show the trend ofβconvergence;the fluctuation of the economic cycle is stable;most provinces show the trend ofβdivergence,and the big ups and downs of cyclical fluctuations still exist.Second,China’s economic cycle as a whole has shown a trend ofσconvergence for a long time.The fluctuation difference of economic cycle among provinces has narrowed,but there is an alternating situation of phased convergence and divergence in the process.Third,there is no trend of club-convergence of economic cycle in the traditionally divided regions,and the four newly divided regions of New East,New Middle,New North and New West have better characteristics of club convergence.Fourth,initial fluctuation,economic volume,and industrial structure affect the robustβconvergence of economic cycle.China’s macro-control is mainly counter cyclical regulation.Fiscal policy and monetary policy promote theσconvergence of economic cycle,in which fiscal policy has a relatively greater impact.The initial fluctuation induced by institutional reform is the most important factor in dividing clubs.

关 键 词：区域经济周期 Σ收敛 Β收敛 俱乐部收敛 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]