基于HHM-RFRM的海洋渔船航行作业风险识别与评估  

Risk Identification and Assessment of Marine Fishing Vessel Operations Based on HHM-RFRM

作　　者：陈武 彭勃 CHEN Wu;PENG Bo(School of Naval Architecture and Maritime,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan Zhejiang 316022,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan Zhejiang 316022,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学船舶与海运学院,浙江舟山316022 [2]浙江海洋大学经济与管理学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《广州航海学院学报》2024年第4期19-25,共7页Journal of Guangzhou Maritime University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20BFX207)。

摘　　要：为进一步强化渔船事故防控力度,减少渔船事故发生,保障渔民生命与财产安全,考虑多种风险因素交互作用的影响,对渔船安全航行作业展开研究。基于层次全息建模和风险过滤、评级与管理理论(HHM-RFRM),建立渔船航行风险识别框架,有效识别和筛选渔船航行关键风险因素。以宁波象山县渔船为例,结合多标准评估和贝叶斯定理筛选关键风险因素并探讨其交互影响,最终筛选出瞭望情况、操作规范情况、渔民生产经验、风浪、作业设备、抗沉性、船机维护保养、甲板渔具摆放这8项关键风险因素。通过对关键因素进行交互分析,得到各场景的危险程度指数,可为渔业船舶的风险管理提供有效参考。In order to further strengthen the prevention and control of fishing vessel accidents,reduce the occurrence of fishing vessel accidents,and safeguard the lives and properties of fishermen,a study on the safe navigation operations of fishing vessels has been carried out,taking into account the impact of the interaction of a variety of risk factors.Based on hierarchical holographic modelling and the theory of risk filtering,rating and management(HHM-RFRM),we established a framework for identifying the risks of fishing vessel navigation,and effectively identified and screened the key risk factors of fishing vessel navigation.Taking the example of the fishing vessels in Xiangshan County,Ningbo,we combined the multi-criteria assessment and Bayes theorem to screen the key risk factors and explored their interaction.Ultimately screen out the situation of lookout,the situation of operation specification,the fishermen s experience in production,the wind and wave the eight key risk factors are:watchfulness,operation standard,fishermen s production experience,wind and wave,operation equipment,anti-submergence,maintenance of vessel and machine,and placement of fishing gears on deck.By interactively analysing the key factors,the hazard level indices obtained for each scenario can provide an effective reference for risk management of fishing vessels.

关 键 词：渔船事故 风险管理 HHM-RFRM 象山县渔船 贝叶斯定理 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]