“经济-绿色-环境”协调发展水平测度及动态交互关系--基于四川省21个市州数据的实证分析  

On the Measurement of Coordinated Development Level of Economy-Green-Environment and Their Dynamic Interaction Relationships:An Empirical Analysis of 21 Cities/Prefectures in Sichuan Province,China

作　　者：杨桂红 彭立 张慧娟[1,2] 张馨月 YANG Guihong;PENG Li;ZHANG Huijuan;ZHANG Xinyue(Faculty of Geography and Resources Scienc,Ministry of Education,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China;The Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest,Ministry of Education,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China)

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,成都610101 [2]四川师范大学西南土地资源评价与监测教育部重点实验室,成都610101

出　　处：《山地学报》2024年第6期865-879,共15页Mountain Research

基　　金：四川省长江黄河上游生态屏障建设研究智库开放课题(202309);四川省科技计划项目(2022JDJQ0015)。

摘　　要：经济水平、绿色发展和环境状况是城市可持续发展路径中的三个关键要素。受数据与方法限制,前期研究主要关注经济、绿色发展、环境之间的两两关系,对三者之间的互馈机制和因果联系研究仍较薄弱,尚未建立一套能够全面反映经济-绿色-环境系统协调发展状况的统一评价指标体系。论文基于2000—2021年四川省21个市州的面板数据,构建经济水平、绿色发展和环境状况的指标体系,运用CRITIC-熵权组合赋权法、耦合协调模型和面板向量自回归模型,测度经济水平、绿色发展、环境状况的耦合协调程度,并揭示三个系统之间的动态交互关系。结果表明:(1)四川省经济水平、绿色发展和环境状况综合发展水平整体较好,其耦合协调性平缓上升,逐步向更高级的协调发展阶段迈进,并且与经济水平发展趋势具有较高的一致性,经济水平的提高带动了绿色发展和环境状况的改善。(2)经济水平、绿色发展、环境状况之间因果关系与双向互动关系显著,共同构成了一个复杂的动态系统,且三个系统在发展过程中均呈现出一定的自我增强效应,但增强效应随着时间的推移逐渐减弱。研究结果可为实现区域经济、社会和环境的协调发展,推动高质量和绿色可持续发展、生态文明建设等提供决策参考。Economic level,green development and environmental conditions are three key elements in the path of urban sustainable development.Previous research was conducted mostly on the pairwise relationship among the three of economy,green development and environment.However,research on the mutual feedback mechanisms and causal links among the three element systems remained relatively weak,and a set of unified evaluation index system that can comprehensively reflect the coordinated development of the economy-green-environment system on a regional basis had not yet been established.In this study,it constructed a comprehensive index system integrating economic levels,green development,and environmental conditions based on panel data from 21 cities in Sichuan Province,China from 2000 to 2021.It used CRITIC(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation)-entropy weight combination method,coupling coordination model and panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model to measure the degree of coordinated development level of economy-green-environment,and revealed the dynamic interaction relationships among the three element systems.The overall development levels of the economic level,green development,and environmental conditions in cities of Sichuan Province were relatively good,with their coupling and coordination gradually increasing and moving towards a higher stage of coordinated development,which was consistent with the development trend of the economic level.The improvement of the economic level drove the improvement of green development and environmental conditions.The causal and bidirectional interactive relationships among economic development,green growth,and environmental conditions were significant,forming a complex dynamic system.All three element systems exhibited a certain self-reinforcing effect during their development process,but this reinforcing effect gradually diminished over time.The research provides decision-making reference for realizing the coordinated development of regional economy,society and environ

关 键 词：经济水平 绿色发展 环境状况 耦合协调 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]