三峡水库上游流域季节降水预报效果评价  

Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting for the Upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：谢帅 张森 王永强[1,2] 刘杨合 XIE Shuai;ZHANG Sen;WANG Yong-qiang;LIU Yang-he(Water Resources Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water Resources&Eco-environmental Sciences,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science,China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,武汉430010 [2]长江科学院流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室,武汉430010 [3]中国长江电力股份有限公司智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第1期28-34,56,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202302);湖北省自然科学基金项目(2024AFA011,2023AFB039,2022CFD027);武汉市知识创新专项基础研究项目(2022020801010240);长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2040212);水利部重大科技项目(SKS-2022120);中国长江电力股份有限公司资助项目(Z242302057)。

摘　　要：在气候变化条件下,季节降水预报对于中长期的水资源配置和综合利用具有重要的作用。不同的季节降水预报产品各有优劣,为了从中选择最合适的预报产品,基于8种降水预报模型在三峡水库上游流域的1~6个月预见期的预报结果,对比分析了其在不同子流域的确定性预报和集合预报效果,筛选了不同子流域的最优预报模型。结果表明:不同预见期下、不同子流域的最优预报模型均有所差异;整体来看ECCC3、ECMWF、CMCC预测模型的预报效果较好;在整个三峡水库上游流域,预见期为1个月、2~6个月预见期时预报效果表现最好的分别为ECCC3模型、ECMWF模型;在金沙江上游、乌东德上游,ECCC3模型较好,在金沙江下游、乌江、向家坝—寸滩、寸滩—三峡,CMCC模型较好,在岷江,ECMWF模型较好,在沱江,MF模型较好。通过选取各个子流域的最优预报模型,可以组合得到三峡水库上游流域的整体预报结果,相比于单一模型的预报,组合后的预报误差降低9.33%~17.86%。In the background of climate change,seasonal precipitation forecasting is of great importance for mid-long term allocation and comprehensive utilization of water resources.Given that each forecasting product has its unique advantages and disadvantages,we evaluated and compared the forecasting performance of deterministic and ensemble forecasts of eight models with 1-6 months forecast lead time(FLT)for the upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)to select the optimal model for each sub-basin.Results demonstrate that the optimal model may vary across different sub-basins and FLTs.In general,the ECCC3,ECMWF,CMCC models exhibit superior forecasting performance.Specifically,in the upstream of the TGR,the ECCC3 model performs best when the FLT is 1 month,while the ECMWF model excels for FLTs of 2-6 months.In the upstream of the Jinsha River and the Wudongde Project,the ECCC3 model performs the best.Conversely,in the downstream of the Jinsha River,Wujiang River,Xiangjiaba-Cuntan sub-basin,and Cuntan-Three Gorges sub-basin,the CMCC model outperforms other models.The ECMWF model performs the best for the Minjiang River while the MF model for the Tuojiang River.Based on the forecasting results of the optimal models in different sub-basins,we calculated the forecasting precipitation in the upstream of the TGR.Compared with the forecasting results of single best-performing models,the integration of forecasting result for each sub-basin reduces the root mean squared error by 9.33%-17.86%.

关 键 词：季节降水预报 确定性预报 集合预报 预报效果评价 三峡水库上游 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]