岷江源区百年来汛期降水气候特征  

Characteristics of Flood Season Precipitation over the Past Century in the Headwater Region of Minjiang River

作　　者：胡文斌 陈治霖 刘建成 刘欢 唐亚[1,3] HU Wen-bin;CHEN Zhi-lin;LIU Jian-cheng;LIU Huan;TANG Ya(College of Architecture and Environment,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Huanglong National Scenic Area Administration,Aba 623300,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都610065 [2]黄龙国家级风景名胜区管理局,四川阿坝藏族羌族自治州623300 [3]四川大学山区河流保护与治理国家重点实验室,成都610065

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第1期57-63,81,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：黄龙风景名胜区管理局项目(22H1204);国家自然科学基金项目(41929002)。

摘　　要：掌握岷江源区汛期降水的气候特征对补充长江上游流域气象水文研究和服务当地生态环境建设有重要意义。基于岷江源区的四川省松潘县降水数据,利用树轮气候学和气候统计学方法分析了该区域1901—2014年汛期(5—9月份)降水的变化特征。结果表明:(1)树木径向生长和CRU数据均与松潘气象站汛期降水量显著相关,树木年轮数据能较好提升CRU数据质量,以这两种数据建立多元回归方程可以较好地重建过去百年来的汛期降水量;(2)汛期降水贡献了当地年降水量的72%,百年来气候倾向率为-10.7 mm/(100 a),无明显减少趋势;(3)汛期降水变化稳定,无显著性突变发生,存在35~37、15~20、10~11 a的周期性,有利于降水的长期气候预测。研究成果补充了岷江源区的气象水文数据并为流域生态环境研究提供了有价值的科学数据。Understanding the climatic characteristics of flood season precipitation in the headwater region of Minjiang River is crucial for advancing meteorological and hydrological research and ecological conservation in the upstream of the Yangtze River.Based on the tree-ring-revealed precipitation data in Songpan County of Sichuan Province,we investigated the flood season(May-September)precipitation variation from 1901 to 2014 using dendroclimatology and climatological statistics methods.Results indicated that:1)Tree radial growth and CRU(Climatic Research Unit)data were significantly correlated with flood season precipitation,and precipitation over the past century could be well reconstructed using multiple regression equations as tree-ring data improves CRU data quality.2)Flood season precipitation contributed about 72%of annual precipitation;the climatic tendency of precipitation was-10.7 mm/century,showing insignificant decrease.3)Flood season precipitation was stable with no significant abrupt changes over the past century,but with a primary periodicity of 35-37 years and multiple time scale periods of 15-20 and 10-11 years.The research findings offer valuable meteorological information for ecological research and regional development in the headwater region of Minjiang River.

关 键 词：降水特征 树木年轮 汛期 松潘 岷江源区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]