里下河涝区暴雨遭遇及排涝风险评估  

Encounter of Heavy Rainfall in Lixiahe Waterlogged Area and Assessment of Drainage Risks

作　　者：兰林 毛媛媛 朱大伟[2] 卢知是 LAN Lin;MAO Yuan-yuan;ZHU Da-wei;LU Zhi-shi(Jiangsu Provincial Water Resources Planning Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China;Nanjing Branch,Jiangsu Surveying and Design Institute of Water Resources Co.,Ltd.,Yangzhou 225127,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水利工程规划办公室,南京210029 [2]江苏省水利勘测设计研究院有限公司南京分院,江苏扬州225127

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2025年第1期90-97,共8页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2022003,2021002)。

摘　　要：为优化里下河水网区的排涝工程布局,需考虑腹部洼地与关联涝区的暴雨遭遇关系。基于Copula函数构建不同涝区间的降雨频率的联合分布,计算分析暴雨遭遇概率。结果表明,构造腹部区和斗北区降雨频率的皮尔逊Ⅲ型边缘分布,采用Frank Copula函数拟合建立其二维联合分布,能方便地计算指定历时和重现期暴雨的遭遇概率;结合实况降雨的时程和频率分析,表明2个涝区发生超设计标准暴雨的风险很小,当腹部区发生超设计排涝标准暴雨时,斗北区遭遇超设计防洪标准暴雨的概率仍较低。研究结果表明在斗北区新辟排涝通道方案是可行的。To optimize the drainage engineering layout in the Lixia River water network area,it is essential to consider the interaction between the internal lowland and the incidence of heavy rainfall in adjacent waterlog-prone areas.Using the Copula function,we constructed a joint distribution of rainfall frequencies for these waterlogged areas to calculate the heavy rainfall probability.Pearson Type-III marginal distributions for the rainfall frequencies in the Fubu and Doubei areas,together with Frank Copula function for the fitting of their two-dimensional joint distribution,facilitates the calculation of the probabilities of heavy rainfall for specified durations and return periods.By integrating observed rainfall time series with frequency analysis,we found that the risk of both waterlog-prone areas(namely the Fubu and Doubei areas)experiencing heavy rainfall beyond design standards is minimal.Specifically,when heavy rainfall in the Fubu area exceeds design drainage criteria,the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the Doubei area surpassing design flood control thresholds remains low.These findings support the feasibility of the proposed drainage channel scheme in the Doubei area.

关 键 词：排涝风险 暴雨遭遇概率 Copula函数 平原水网 洼地排涝 里下河水网区 水利规划 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]