基于集对分析的新疆喀什地区水资源可持续利用评价  

Evaluation of sustainable utilization of water resources in Kashgar region of Xinjiang based on set-pair analysis

作　　者：刘爽 陈伏龙[1,2] 姜波 高源 王统霞 LIU Shuang;CHEN Fulong;JIANG Bo;GAO Yuan;WANG Tongxia(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Key Laboratory of Cold and Arid Regions Eco-Hydraulic Engineering of Xinjiang Production&Construction Corps,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China;Shihezi Water Conservancy Engineering Management Service Center of the Eighth Division,Shihezi,Xinjiang 832000,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]寒旱区生态水利工程兵团重点实验室,新疆石河子832000 [3]第八师石河子市水利工程管理服务中心,新疆石河子832000

出　　处：《排灌机械工程学报》2025年第2期194-201,共8页Journal of Drainage and Irrigation Machinery Engineering

基　　金：南疆重点产业创新发展支撑计划(2022DB024);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52169005);兵团科技创新人才计划项目(2023CB008-08)。

摘　　要：为了分析新疆喀什地区水资源可持续利用现状及其影响因素,基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”(driving-pressure-state-impact-response,DPSIR)模型选取17项评价指标构建水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,分别采用能够较好揭示不确定性系统内在规律的集对分析法与偏联系数法建立切实适用于本区域的可持续评价模型,对新疆喀什地区2010—2019年水资源可持续利用状况进行了综合评价,并结合三元半偏减法集对势诊断该区域发展态势,识别影响其可持续发展的脆弱性指标.结果表明:新疆喀什地区各年水资源可持续利用状况不一,其中,2010—2013年与2017年水资源可持续利用情况较好,区域内水资源得到了较好的开发与利用,2014—2016年、2018—2019年区域内政策规划基本合理,水资源综合可持续能力一般;集对分析法对喀什地区水资源可持续评价具有较好的适用性;影响喀什地区水资源可持续利用发展较为脆弱的指标包括人口密度、人均GDP、生活用水量与生态用水量.研究结果可为促进新疆喀什地区水资源可持续利用发展提供一定的科学依据.To analyze the current situation of sustainable use of water resources and its influencing factors in Kashgar,Xinjiang,an evaluation index system was constructed based on the″driving-pressure-state-impact-response″(DPSIR)model with 17 evaluation indexes.The set-pair analysis method and the bias linkage number method,which could better reveal the inherent laws of uncertainty systems,were adopted to establish a sustainable evaluation model that effectively conformed to the region.A comprehensive evaluation was made of the sustainable utilization of water resources in Kashgar,Xinjiang,during 2010—2019,and the development trend was diagnosed by combining the three-dimensional semi-decreasing set-pair potential to identify the vulnerability indicators affecting the sustainable deve-lopment.The results show that the sustainable utilization of water resources in Kashgar,Xinjiang varies from year to year,among which the sustainable utilization of water resources from 2010 to 2013 and 2017 was better,and all types of water resources in the region have been developed and utilized.The policy planning in the region from 2014 to 2016,2018 and 2019 was basically reasonable,and the comprehensive sustainability of water resources is average.The set-pair analysis method has good applicability to sustainable evaluation of water resources in Kashgar area.The more vulnerable indicators affecting the sustainable development of water resources in Kashgar include population density,GDP per capita,domestic water consumption,and ecological water consumption.The research results of this study can provide a certain scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Kashgar,Xinjiang.

关 键 词：喀什地区 水资源可持续发展 DPSIR模型 集对分析法 三元半偏减法集对势 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]