中国实体经济韧性的测度及影响因素分析  

Measurement and Influencing Factors of China's Real Economy Resilience

作　　者：王儒奇 陶士贵[2] Wang Ruqi;Tao Shigui(School of Business,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005;School of business,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏海洋大学商学院 [2]南京师范大学商学院

出　　处：《江苏大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期43-60,共18页Journal of Jiangsu University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD180);连云港市社会科学基金一般项目(24LKT0016)。

摘　　要：实体经济作为经济高质量发展的底座,其韧性既是保障经济平稳运行的迫切需求,也是新发展格局下推动经济转型升级的必然所在。基于中国2011-2021年的城市数据,利用GMM-SL-SAR-RE模型对221个城市的狭义实体经济韧性(RES 1)和广义实体经济韧性(RES_(2))进行测度,结果表明:RES_(1)和RES_(2)的整体水平较高,高韧性和较高韧性的城市占比超过60%,其中省会城市、常住人口100万及以上规模城市处于领先地位;RES 1和RES 2的空间集聚特征存在显著差异,其中RES_(1)呈现较为离散的分布特征,而RES 2表现出显著的正向空间相关性。进一步考察RES 2的空间特征可以发现,在长三角等经济关联密切的地区,已经形成了核心城市带动周围城市韧性提升的协同发展格局;而在京津冀、成渝城市群等核心城市与其他城市差距较为明显的地区,更多地表现出“虹吸效应”。对影响因素进行检验后发现,产业结构合理化、人力资本、创新能力、金融发展水平以及交通运输能力能够显著强化实体经济韧性,且城市间实体经济韧性存在着显著的正向空间外溢效应,形成了良性互动的发展格局。As real economy is the foundation of high-quality economic development,its resilience is not only a must to ensure the smooth operation of economy,but also an inevitable driving force for economic transformation and upgrading in the new development pattern.Based on the data of urban China from 2011-2021,this paper uses the GMM-SL-SAR-RE model to measure the resilience of both the narrow real economy(RES1)and the broad real economy(RES2),and analyzes its overall level,spatial agglomeration characteristics and influencing factors.The results show that:(1)The overall level of RES1 and RES2 is relatively high,with over 60%of the cities having high resilience,led by provincial capital cities,those with a permanent population of 1 million or more;(2)There is a notable difference in the spatial clustering characteristics between RES1 and RES2,with RES1 exhibiting more discrete distribution features while RES2 a significant positive spatial correlation;(3)In areas with close economic ties such as the Yangtze River Delta,a collaborative development pattern as is revealed by further investigation of the spatial characteristics of RES2,has been formed where the core city helps increase the resilience of the surrounding cities,while in areas like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomerations where the gap between the core cities and others is more pronounced,the“siphon effect”is more noticeable;(4)As for testing the influencing factors,rationalization of industrial structure,human capital,innovation capability,financial development and transportation capacity can significantly enhance the resilience of the real economy,and there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect among Chinese cities real economic resilience,forming a benign interactive development pattern.

关 键 词：实体经济韧性 GMM-SL-SAR-RE模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]