岩爆预测的非对称变权云模型及应用  

Asymmetric variable-weight cloud model for rockburst prediction and application

作　　者：贺振祥 柯丽华[1,2] 姚囝 张光权[1,2] 王其虎 胡南燕 黄兆云[3] HE Zhenxiang;KE Lihua;YAO Nan;ZHANG Guangquan;WANG Qihu;HU Nanyan;HUANG Zhaoyun(School of Resource and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;Industrial Safety Engineering Technology Research Center of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430081,China;Hubei Jingshen Security Technology Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]湖北省工业安全工程技术研究中心,湖北武汉430081 [3]湖北景深安全技术有限公司,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《中国矿业》2025年第1期192-199,共8页China Mining Magazine

基　　金：湖北省安全生产专项资金科技项目资助(编号:SJZX20211004-1)。

摘　　要：为提高岩爆等级预测的精度和可靠性,提出了岩爆预测的非对称变权云模型。考虑岩爆烈度等级预测指标内涵差异及相互关联,采用文献调研法和频次统计法,选取脆性系数、应力系数、弹性变形能指数、岩体完整性系数,构建了岩爆预测指标体系。基于博弈论和变权思想,充分利用岩爆对象属性特征信息差异和专家对工程条件复杂多变性的识别与判断信息,采用模糊层次分析法、反熵权法和云模型方法,建立了岩爆预测的非对称变权云模型,减少了岩爆预测权重计算的主观随意性,客观地反映了岩爆对象属性特征差异对变权计算的影响,有效描述岩爆预测等级边界处微小变化的随机不确定性、模糊不确定性及其边缘区间单边界的特征信息,也提高了岩爆烈度等级预测结果的可靠性和精度。将该模型应用于20组国内外岩爆实例,预测准确率达90%,均高于熵权-云模型、改进CRITIC-多维云模型和RSTOPSIS法的预测结果,验证了模型的合理性与可靠性。本文模型的建立为客观反映岩爆工程实际情况和提高岩爆烈度等级预测结果的可靠性和精度提供方法路径。To improve the accuracy and reliability of rockburst level prediction,an asymmetric variable-weight cloud model for rockburst prediction is presented.Considering the differences in the connotation and interrelation of the prediction indexes of the rockburst intensity level,the system of rockburst intensity level prediction indexes including four indexes such as brittleness coefficient,stress coefficient,elastic deformation energy index and integrity coefficient of the rock body is established by adopting the method of literature research and the method of frequency statistics.Fully utilizing the differences in attribute feature information of rockburst objects and the recognition and judgment information of experts on the complexity and variability of engineering conditions,the asymmetric variable-weight cloud model for rockburst prediction is developed to reduce the subjective arbitrariness in the calculation of rockburst prediction weights,reflect objectively the impact of different attribute characteristics of rock burst on variable-weight calculation,describe effectively the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty of small changes at the boundary of rock burst prediction levels,as well as the characteristic information of single boundaries in their edge intervals,and also improves the reliability and precision of the prediction results of the rock burst intensity levels by using fuzzy hierarchical analysis,anti-entropy weighting method and cloud modeling method based on the ideas of game theory and variable-weight.The model has been applied to 20 sets of domestic and international rockburst examples.The prediction accuracy is 90%and higher than the prediction accuracy of entropy weightcloud model,improved CRITIC-multidimensional cloud model and RS-TOPSIS method,which verified the reliability and accuracy of the model.The establishment of the model in this paper provides a method path for objectively reflecting the actual situation of rockburst engineering and improving the reliability and accuracy of rockbur

关 键 词：岩爆预测 博弈论 变权理论 模糊层次分析法 反熵权法 非对称云模型 

分 类 号：TD32[矿业工程—矿井建设] TU459.2[建筑科学—岩土工程]