基于二元Logistic回归船舶修造事故伤害模型  

Accident injuries model of ship repair and building enterprises based on binary Logistic regression

作　　者：李显 焦宇 史旦达 吴建军 康与涛 LI Xian;JIAO Yu;SHI Danda;WU Jianjun;KANG Yutao(College of Ocean Science and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China;Research and Development Center,Shanghai Shipbuilding Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学海洋科学与工程学院,上海201306 [2]上海船舶工艺研究所研发中心,上海200032

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第12期120-128,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51109127)。

摘　　要：为探究船舶修造企业(SRBE)事故伤害的影响因素,基于1411起某造船集团事故数据,构建二元Logistic回归(LR)模型,并借助让步比(OR)量化企业、时间、地点、人员、环境和事故类型等因素对事故伤害的影响。结果表明:共有11个因素显著影响事故伤害。非合同工事故伤害风险显著高于合同工;非审批的危险作业项目事故伤害风险是审批项目的3.246倍;男性肇事者事故伤害风险显著高于女性;事故中作业人员受教育水平集中在初中,相较于初中学历,作业人员受教育程度越高,事故伤害风险越低;事故伤害呈现季节性特征,第2季度事故频发,第1季度事故较少且风险较低;高峰时段及工作日事故伤害风险分别显著高于非高峰时段和非工作日;物体打击是主要事故类型,而机械伤害显著增加作业人员受伤风险;厂区内船舶和车间是事故伤害高发地点;随着工龄增加,事故造成人员伤害风险降低,然而温度上升,发生事故伤害风险增加。In order to explore the factors influencing accident injuries in SRBE,a binary LR model was constructed based on data from 1411 accidents from a Chinese shipbuilding group.OR were used to quantify the impact of factors such as enterprise,time,location,personnel,environment,and accident types to accident injuries.The result identifies 11 significant factors influencing accident injuries.Non-contract workers face significantly higher risks of injury compared to contract workers.Non-approved hazardous operations pose 3.246 times the risk of accident injuries compared to approved hazardous operations.Male perpetrators present a significantly higher risk of causing accident injuries than female perpetrators.The education level of the workers is predominantly at junior high school,and higher education levels are associated with a lower risk of causing accident injuries compared to those with junior high school education.Accident injuries exhibit seasonal characteristics,with accidents occurring frequently in the second quarter,while relatively fewer and less risky in the first quarter.Peak working hours and workdays significantly increase injury risks compared to off-peak hours and non-working days.Object strikes are the primary type of accidents,and mechanical injuries significantly increase the risk of accident injuries.Ships and workshops are the most likely locations for accident injuries within the shipyards.Longer years of service reduce the risk of accident injuries,while higher temperatures increase it.

关 键 词：Logistic回归(LR) 船舶修造企业(SRBE) 事故伤害 影响因素 让步比(OR) 

分 类 号：X928.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]