山岳型景区旅游安全风险评估: 以北京市为例  

Tourism safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas:a case study of Beijing

作　　者：刘伟[1] 代萍 赵方雷 崔可欣 LIU Wei;DAI Ping;ZHAO Fanglei;CUI Kexin(School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China;Sirui Zhiyuan Information Consulting(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100006,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)应急管理与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]思睿致远信息咨询(北京)有限公司,北京100006

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第12期168-177,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目资助(52074303)。

摘　　要：为消除山岳型景区安全风险复杂性和不确定性对景区运营安全的影响,提出一种山岳型景区风险评估方法。首先,识别山岳型景区风险因素,从人员、设备设施、环境和管理4个方面,构建山岳型景区风险评估指标体系;然后,构建模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN)模型评估风险概率,构建层次分析(AHP)模型评估风险损失,并提出一种改进的最低合理可行(ALARP)准则,评估山岳型景区综合安全风险;最后,以北京市山岳型景区的安全风险评估为例,验证该风险评估方法的科学性和有效性。研究结果表明:基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的山岳型景区风险评估方法,能够有效解决山岳型景区风险因素复杂且各个层级之间存在依赖关系的问题;BN与三角模糊数的结合,既能充分利用专家经验,又可在一定程度上避免专家意见的主观性;山岳型景区关键风险因素为危险游乐设施检测不到位、森林防火设施配置/设置不足、危险游乐项目防护围栏设置不到位、落石与山体滑坡等。To eliminate the impact of complexity and uncertainty of safety risks in mountainous scenic areas on operational safety,a risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas was proposed.Firstly,risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were identified to develop a risk assessment index system including personnel,equipment and facilities,environment,and management.Then,FBN and AHP models were proposed to evaluate risk probabilities and losses.Moreover,an improved ALARP criterion was used to analyze the comprehensive safety risk of mountainous scenic areas.Finally,the performance and effectiveness of the risk assessment method were validated against safety risk assessment in mountainous scenic areas in Beijing.The results indicated that the BN-based risk assessment method for mountainous scenic areas effectively addressed the issue of complex risk factors and interdependent relationships between each level.The combination of BN and triangular fuzzy number can make full use of expert experience and avoid the subjectivity of expert opinions to a certain extent.The key risk factors in mountainous scenic areas were inadequate detection of dangerous amusement facilities,insufficient configuration or arrangement of forest fire prevention facilities,inadequate protective fencing for hazardous amusement projects,and rockfalls and landslides.

关 键 词：山岳型景区 安全风险评估 指标体系 模糊贝叶斯网络(FBN) 层次分析(AHP) 最低合理可行准则(ALARP) 

分 类 号：X959[环境科学与工程—安全科学]