基于动态贝叶斯网络的客舱颠簸事件应急处置分析  

Analysis of emergency response to cabin turbulence based on dynamic Bayesian network

作　　者：吴煜 吴欣怡 解江[2] WU Yu;WU Xinyi;XIE Jiang(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Institute of Science and Technology Innovation,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航大学科技创新研究院,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第12期203-212,共10页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：天津市技术创新引导专项基金资助(23YDTPJC00010);天津市大学生创新创业计划项目(202310059017)。

摘　　要：为有效降低客舱颠簸事件造成的人员伤亡与财产损失,提出基于动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)的客舱颠簸应急处置决策分析方法。首先,依据国内外相关法律法规,结合地面、空中的关键人员应急职责,从航前、航中、航后分析颠簸应急处置流程,选择24个关键事件构建结构化的蝴蝶结(BT)模型;其次,建立映射条件和转换规则,形成DBN模型;然后,统计客观的直接节点先验概率以及三角模糊数专家评判法得到的补充节点模糊概率,得出所有节点的先验概率;最后,选择时间片间隔1和2 min重点对中度、重度颠簸进行仿真推理,研究各动态要素对客舱颠簸事件处置失效的影响特征。结果表明:各应急处置节点受颠簸程度和时间变化影响显著,应急处置最佳时间在5 min之内,其中,乘员固定措施不到位的失效概率随颠簸程度加重而加大;乘员没有系好安全带及客舱乘务人员的过度服务等人为因素是导致处置失效的关键原因。In order to effectively reduce the casualties and property losses caused by cabin turbulence,a decision analysis method based on a dynamic Bayesian network is proposed for cabin turbulence emergency response.Firstly,according to the relevant laws and regulations at domestic and international,combined with the emergency duties of key personnel on the ground and in the air,the turbulence emergency disposal process is analysed from pre-flight,in-flight and post-flight,and 24 key events are selected to construct a structured BT model.Secondly,the mapping conditions and transformation rules are established to form a DBN model.Then,the objective direct node a priori probability and the supplementary node fuzzy probability obtained by the triangular fuzzy probabilities of supplementary nodes obtained by the fuzzy number expert judgement method to obtain the a priori probabilities of all nodes.Finally,the time slice intervals of 1 and 2 min are selected to focus on the simulation inference of moderate and heavy turbulence,and to study the characteristics of the influence of each dynamic element on the failure of cabin turbulence event disposal.The results show that:the emergency response nodes are significantly affected by the degree of turbulence and time changes,and the optimal time for emergency response is within 5 min.Among them,the probability of failure for the failure of the crew fixation measures in place increases with the increase of the degree of turbulence,human factors such as the failure of the crew to fasten the seat belts and the over-servicing by the cabin crew are the key reasons for the failure of the response.

关 键 词：动态贝叶斯网络(DBN) 颠簸事件 应急处置 蝴蝶结(BT)模型 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：X928.03[环境科学与工程—安全科学]