发展中国家的外债风险:识别及特征  

External Debt Risks of Developing Countries:Identification and Characteristics

作　　者：张爱婷 张赟 刘佳怡 ZHANG Aiting;ZHANG Yun;LIU Jiayi

机构地区：[1]西安财经大学统计学院 [2]西安财经大学中国(西安)丝绸之路研究院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《决策与信息》2025年第2期63-76,共14页Decision & Information

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(12472030),项目负责人:李爽;中国(西安)丝绸之路研究院资助项目。

摘　　要：发展中国家借用外债促进本国经济发展的同时也面临着债务风险。外债风险集中于三方面:规模风险、结构风险与偿还风险。基于备受关注的36个发展中国家2001-2021年的外债数据,在对各指标风险进行指数化的基础上,根据CRITIC权重法测度外债总风险及各维度外债风险,并对风险进行识别后发现:所关注的发展中国家外债总体风险呈年度递增趋势,各国风险程度差距呈现先扩大后缩小的特征;对各个发展中国家外债风险进行聚类发现,外债总体风险较高的国家有塔吉克斯坦、土耳其、乌克兰、阿根廷、南非与蒙古国;对各国外债总体风险来源进行分析发现,这些国家外债规模风险、结构风险在观察期内呈递增趋势,但外债偿还风险较为稳定;各国外债规模风险的差距呈现先缩小后增大再缩小的特征,外债结构风险差距逐年缩小,外债偿还风险差距较为稳定;对各国外债总体风险来源进行聚类发现,外债规模风险较高的国家有黎巴嫩、老挝与蒙古国,外债结构风险较高的国家有南非、乌克兰、土耳其与俄罗斯,外债偿还风险较高的国家有阿根廷与蒙古国。Developing countries are faced with debt risks while borrowing foreign debt to promote their economic development.The external debt risk is concentrated in three aspects:scale risk,structural risk and repayment risk.Based on the foreign debt data of 36 developing countries from 2001 to 2021,this paper measures the total risk of foreign debt and the risk of each dimension of foreign debt according to the CRITIC weight method on the basis of indexation of the risk of each index.After identifying the risks,it is found that:The overall risk of developing countries'external debt is increasing year by year,and the gap of risk degree among countries is characterized by widening first and then narrowing.By clustering the external debt risks of various developing countries,it is found that the countries with higher overall external debt risks are Tajikistan,Turkey,Ukraine,Argentina,South Africa and Mongolia;through the analysis of the overall risk sources of foreign debt in various countries,it is found that the scale risk and structural risk of foreign debt in these countries show an increasing trend during the observation period,but the risk of foreign debt repayment is relatively stable;the gap of foreign debt scale risk among countries is characterized by narrowing first,then increasing and then narrowing.The gap of foreign debt structure risk is narrowing year by year,and the gap of foreign debt repayment risk is relatively stable.By clustering the overall risk sources of foreign debt,it is found that Lebanon,Laos and Mongolia have higher risks in the scale of foreign debt,South Africa,Ukraine,Turkey and Russia have higher risks in the structure of foreign debt,and Argentina and Mongolia have higher risks in the repayment of foreign debt.

关 键 词：发展中国家 外债风险 规模风险 结构风险 偿还风险 风险防范 

分 类 号：F811[经济管理—财政学]