天然气区域生产中的关联工艺参数协同预测与预警  

Collaborative Prediction and Warning of Associated Process Parameters in Natural Gas Regional Production

作　　者：赵勇[1] 尹爱军[2] 成浩 李骞[1] 纪林呈 吴倩颖 ZHAO Yong;YIN Ai-jun;CHENG Hao;LI Qian;JI Lin-cheng;WU Qian-ying(Chongqing Gas Mine of Southwest Oil and Gas Field Branch of Petrochina,Chongqing 400021,China;College of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Guangxi University,Nanning 530004,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司西南油气田分公司重庆气矿,重庆400021 [2]重庆大学机械与运载工程学院,重庆400044 [3]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2025年第2期560-566,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52275518)。

摘　　要：为提前发现天然气区域生产过程中管线、装置可能发生的超压、泄露等异常工况,现有工业控制报警系统不能准确反映设备真实状态,而采用单参数的预警误判率较高,实用性不足。提出了一种天然气区域生产各上、下游场站关联工艺参数的协同预测与预警方法。针对天然气区域内场站多、生产过程复杂、监测数据多样的特点,首先对每个场站的参数进行降维,提取各场站的关键工艺参数;再对关键参数进行关联度评估及分组,以同组的高关联参数为自变量,建立多元非线性套索回归预测模型;同时,建立关键参数的长短期记忆预测模型;结合两种模型预测结果的对比分析确定动态阈值,对区域生产进行协同预警。通过重庆气矿某井区开展的有效性验证,结果表明该方法不仅能有效减少单值异常出现的预警误判,又可提前定位异常场站和异常点位,具有较高的实用价值。In order to detect the abnormal working conditions such as overpressure and leakage,that may occur in pipelines and installations in the process of natural gas regional production,the current industrial control and alarm systems cannot accurately reflect the real state of the equipment,and the single-parameter early warning has a higher rate of error judgement,which is insufficient in practicality.A collaborative prediction and warning method for process parameters related to upstream and downstream stations in a natural gas production area was tested.Aiming at the characteristics of natural gas region with many stations,complex production process and diverse monitoring data,firstly,the parameters of each station were downgraded to extract the key process parameters of each station.Then,the key parameters are evaluated and grouped by correlation,and a multivariate nonlinear lasso regression prediction model was established with the highly correlated parameters in the same group as the independent variables.At the same time,a long and short-term memory prediction model was established for the key parameters,and a comparison analysis of the prediction results was performed to determine the dynamic prediction and early warning of natural gas production.Comparative analysis of the prediction results of the two models was used to determine the dynamic thresholds for coordinated early warning of regional production.The results show that the method can not only effectively reduce the misjudgment of single-value anomalies,but also locate the anomalous stations and points,which is of high practical value.

关 键 词：天然气区域生产 报警 工艺参数 关联度 协同预警 

分 类 号：TE863[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程] TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]