储量不确定性分析中的参数优选与应用  

Parameter Selection and Application in Reservoirs Uncertainty Analysis

作　　者：夷晓伟 戴建文 王华 宋刚 孙爽 Yi Xiaowei;Dai Jianwen;Wang Hua;Song Gang;Sun Shuang(Shenzhen Branch of CNOOC(China)Co.,Ltd.,Guangdong,518000)

机构地区：[1]中海石油(中国)有限公司深圳分公司,广东518000

出　　处：《当代化工研究》2025年第1期130-132,共3页Modern Chemical Research

摘　　要：概率法是进行储量不确定性分析的研究方法。目前常规方法是选取含油面积、有效厚度、孔隙度、含油饱和度等主要参数作为随机变量,运用容积法计算公式进行评估。研究以珠江口盆地海相砂岩油田为例,分析有效厚度和净毛比(Net Fo Gross,NTG)两个参数在概率法中的差异,发现选取有效厚度作为随机变量的常规方法在实际应用中存在一定的局限性。通过优化计算公式,选用净毛比作为主要参数进行评估,估算储量的数学期望(Pmean)与容积法估算储量的相对误差更小,储量概率分布曲线更为集中,估算结果可靠程度更高。The probability method is a research technique utilized for analyzing uncertainty in reserve assessments.Currently,the conventional approach involves selecting primary parameters,such as oil-bearing area,effective thickness,porosity,and oil saturation,as random variables and then utilizing volumetric calculation formulas for evaluation,using the marine sandstone oilfield in the Pearl River Mouth Basin as an example.Examineing the differences between effective thickness and net-to-gross ratio(NTG)in the application of the probability method.The study reveals that the conventional method of selecting effective thickness as a random variable has certain practical limitations.By optimizing the calculation formula and utilizing NTG as the primary parameter for probability method evaluation,the relative error between the mathematical expectation(Pmean)of estimated reserves and the volumetric estimation of reserves is reduced.Moreover,the probability distribution curve is more focused,resulting in a higher level of reserve reliability.

关 键 词：概率法 不确定性分析 随机变量 有效厚度 净毛比(NTG) 

分 类 号：TE34[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]