面向“双碳”目标的森林碳汇时空演变特征与驱动因素研究——以南方集体林区为例  

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Characteristics and Driving Factors of Forest Carbon Sinks for Dual Carbon Targets——A case study of Southern Collective Forest Region

作　　者：吴莹 陈周光 龙飞[1] WU Ying;CHEN Zhouguang;LONG Fei(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300

出　　处：《西安文理学院学报(自然科学版)》2024年第4期108-116,共9页Journal of Xi’an University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:“双碳”目标下森林碳汇交易的减排福利调节机理与优化路径研究(22BGL168)

摘　　要：该研究在基于2004—2018年南方集体林区蓄积量、自然数据、社会经济数据的基础上,运用森林蓄积量扩展法、arcgis、核密度估计法以及地理探测器探究南方集体林区碳汇的时空格局特征及驱动因素的解释力度.结果表明:(1)在空间上,南方集体林区大致呈现“南高北低”的空间分布格局,各省份的碳汇量皆呈现增长趋势但具有明显的空间分异现象.(2)在时间上,核密度曲线整体从左向右移动表明南方集体林区的碳汇总量显著增多,峰值向下移动并且波峰宽度由尖窄型逐渐转变为扁宽型表明各省际的差距在扩大.(3)地理探测器结果表明,森林面积、年均气温、林业从业人员、土地利用类型的解释力较强,是影响南方集体林区碳汇分布的主要因素,所有因子交互作用均强于单因子作用.研究结论表明南方集体林区碳汇时空分布及驱动因素差异显著,因此各地区应采取适宜的方法以实现低碳增汇的发展路径.In China,one of the important regions contributing to carbon sink,the study on temporal and spatial changes of forest carbon sink and its driving factors is of great practical significance to practice the low-carbon concept and realize the goal of“double carbon”.Based on the accumulative volume,natural data and socio-economic data of the southern collective forest area from 2004 to 2018,this study applied the forest accumulative volume expansion method,arcgis,kernel density estimation method and geographic detector to explore the spatialtemporal pattern characteristics of the carbon sink in the southern collective forest area and the explanatory force of the influencing factors.The results show that:(1)In terms of space,the southern collective forest area shows a distribution pattern of“high in the south and low in the north”,and the carbon sinks of different provinces have obvious spatial differentiations.(2)In terms of time,the overall movement of the nuclear density curve from left to right indicates that the total carbon sink in the southern collective forest area has increased significantly.The downward movement of the peak value and the change of the width of the wave crest gradually from narrow to flat indicates that the gap between provinces is expanding.(3)The results of the geographic detection show that forest area,annual temperature,forestry practitioners and land use type have strong explanatory power and are the main factors affecting the carbon sink distribution of the southern collective forest area.And the effect of all interacting factors is stronger than the single factor.The conclusion is that the spatial and temporal distribution and influencing factors of carbon sink in the southern collective forest area are significantly different.Therefore,all regions should adopt appropriate methods to realize the developing path of lowcarbon carbon sink.

关 键 词：森林碳汇 蓄积量扩展法 核密度估计 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]