“一带一路”沿线国家铁路投资风险综合评价研究  

Research on Comprehensive Evaluation of Railway Investment Risk in Countries Along“the Belt and Road”

作　　者：向鹏成[1] 刘思佳 段旭[1] Xiang Pengcheng;Liu Sijia;Duan Xu(School of Management Science and Real Estate,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2025年第2期139-149,共11页Journal of Industrial Technology and Economy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“构建现代化基础设施体系研究”(项目编号:2023CDJSKZ02)。

摘　　要：铁路“走出去”在“一带一路”倡议实施过程中具有重要战略意义,但“一带一路”沿线国家投资环境复杂多样。为研究“一带一路”沿线国家的铁路投资风险,本文首先从政治、社会、经济、建设环境、对华关系5个维度构建“一带一路”沿线国家铁路投资风险评价指标体系,并通过“纵横向”拉开档次法和熵权法对其进行主客观赋权;进而,从时间和空间两个维度揭示“一带一路”沿线81个国家(地区)在2010~2022年内铁路投资风险的动态变化特征。研究发现:从时间维度来看,2010~2018年“一带一路”沿线国家铁路投资风险呈降低趋势,而2019~2022年呈上升趋势。从空间维度来看,各地区铁路投资风险存在较大的洲际差异,各洲风险由高到低依次为非洲、拉丁美洲、亚洲、欧洲、大洋洲;此外,“一带一路”沿线国家铁路投资风险存在空间聚集现象。本文研究结论为“走出去”企业对“一带一路”沿线国家进行铁路投资提供风险管理决策参考。Railway“going global”is of great strategic position significance in the implementation of“the Belt and Road”initiative,but the investment environment of countries along“the Belt and Road”is complex and diverse.In order to study the railway investment risk of countries along“the Belt and Road”,firstly,the risk evaluation index system of railway investment along“the Belt and Road”is constructed from five dimensions:politics,society,economy,construction environment and relations with China,and the subjective and objective weights are given by the“vertical and horizontal”scatter degree method and the entropy weight method.Then,from the two dimensions of time and space,the dynamic change characteristics of railway investment risk in 81 countries along“the Belt and Road”in 2010~2022 are revealed.The results show that:From the perspective of time,the railway investment risk of countries along“the Belt and Road”shows a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2018,and an increasing trend from 2019 to 2022.From the perspective of spatial dimension,there is a large intercontinental difference in railway investment risk among different regions,and the risk of each continent is Africa,Latin America,Asia,Europe and Oceania in order from high to low.In addition,there is a spatial accumulation of railway investment risks in countries along“the Belt and Road”.Based on this,it provides a reference for risk management decision-making of“going global”enterprises in railway investment along“the Belt and Road”countries.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 铁路投资风险 风险评估 “纵横向”拉开档次法 熵权法 时间权重 空间自相关 区域差异 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济] F752