增值税税率优化的财政经济效应——基于可计算一般均衡模型的模拟  

Fiscal and Economic Effects of VAT Rate Optimization:Simulations Based on a Computable General Equilibrium Model

作　　者：刘元生[1] 张苏皖 李建军[1] LIU Yuansheng;ZHANG Suwan;LI Jianjun(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政税务学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2025年第1期56-70,共15页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“数字经济时代我国税收制度适配性研究”(23&ZD064)。

摘　　要：优化税制结构是新一轮财税体制改革的内在要求,实现第一大税种增值税税率的简并优化是税制优化的重要选择。本文构建了一个能够反映增值税“购进扣税”征收特征的多区域可计算一般均衡模型(MRCGE),模拟分析增值税不同税率简并方案的财政经济效应和收入分配效应。研究发现:两档税率模式的简档降率改革会带来税收减收,同时降低经济扭曲,提高生产效率,因此能够促进总体消费、投资和国内生产总值的增长,并降低收入差距;9%和8%两种单一税率会带来总税收收入增加和GDP的增长,并缩小收入差距;税率简并的财政、经济和收入分配效应在地区间具有明显的结构性差异。本文研究结果表明,增值税“三档并两档”和保持各行业税负“只减不增”的单一税率方案,面临减少和增长的取舍,就短期而言,可以采取“13%基本税率+6%低税率”的模式,实现“三档并两档”的改革;考虑到企业所得税的低税和优惠政策的局限与调整,减降增值税将成为税制结构优化和增值税改革的重要着力点,由此建议将增值税税率改为8%的单一税率。与此协调应完善转移支付和增值税横向分配机制,构建财力均衡、区域协调的纵向横向财政关系,缩减地区间财政经济社会发展不平衡,畅通国内大循环,助力实现中国式现代化。Optimizing the structure of the tax system is an inherent requirement of the new round of fiscal and tax system reform,and the simplification and optimization of the VAT rate,the largest tax,is an important choice for tax system optimization.This paper constructs a Chinese multi-regional computable general equilibrium model(MRCGE)that reflects the"input tax credit"mechanism of VAT collection,to simulate and analyze the fiscal and economic effects,as well as the income distribution effects,of different VAT rate simplification schemes.The study found:The simple rate reduction reform of the two-tier tax rate model will reduce tax revenue,while simultaneously reducing economic distortions and enhancing productivity,thereby promoting the growth of overall consumption,investment and Gross Domestic Product(GDP),and reduce income disparity.The two single tax rates of 9%and 8%will increase total tax revenue and GDP growth,and reduce income disparity.The fiscal,economic and income distribution effects of tax rate simplification reform have obvious structural differences among regions.The results of this paper show that the single tax rate scheme of"three brackets and two brackets"and keeping the tax burden of various industries"only reduce but not increase"face the trade-off between reduction and growth,In the short term,"13%standard rate+6%reduced rate"model can be adopted to achieve the reform of consolidating three rates into two;Considering the limitations and adjustments of corporate income tax reductions and preferential policies under the context of a global minimum tax,reducing the VAT will become a key focus for optimizing the tax structure and VAT reform.Based on this,the VAT rate could further be simplified to a single rate of 8%;During the reform,efforts should be made to improve the mechanisms for transfer payments and horizontal VAT distribution,establish a fiscal relationship that is balanced and regionally coordinated both vertically and horizontally,reduce disparities in fiscal,economic,and social developm

关 键 词：增值税改革 税率简并 财政效应 税制改革 可计算一般均衡 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]