融合数据驱动稳定性分析的快速路车队追尾冲突预测  

Rear-end conflicts prediction of vehicle platoon on highways integrating data-driven stability analysis

作　　者：王长帅 任卫林 徐铖铖[1] 佟昊 邵永成 彭畅 WANG Changshuai;REN Weilin;XU Chengcheng;TONG Hao;SHAO Yongcheng;PENG Chang(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京211189

出　　处：《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期239-245,共7页Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52172343);江苏省杰出青年基金资助项目(BK20211515)。

摘　　要：为探究车队弦稳定性指标与交通状态变量对车队尾车追尾冲突的影响,提取了1 085条包含连续5辆车的轨迹数据,以最小碰撞时间为评价指标,将尾车的跟驰状态划分为冲突与非冲突2种。利用数据驱动的弦稳定性分析方法,计算车队弦稳定性指标值,构建了仅包含交通状态变量、仅包含弦稳定性指标、融合交通状态变量与弦稳定性指标的3种追尾冲突预测模型,解析不同因素对尾车追尾冲突的影响。研究结果表明,融合交通状态变量与弦稳定性指标的预测模型表现最好,其准确率、精确率和召回率分别为95.90%、93.60%和89.80%。车队弦稳定性指标值越大,尾车发生追尾冲突的概率越高。尾车加速度的标准差、前车的最小车头间距、尾车车头间距的标准差和车头时距的标准差等也是影响追尾冲突的重要因素。To investigate the effects of platoon string stability and traffic state variables on the rear-end conflict of the tail vehicle,1085 vehicle trajectory data points from 5 consecutive cars were extracted.The minimum time-to-collision metric was used to divide the tail vehicle’s states into conflict and non-conflict categories.The value of the platoon string stability indicator was calculated using a data-driven string stability analysis method.A predictive model using only traffic state variables,another using only the platoon string stability in-dicator,and a third combining both elements were developed to explore the effects of different factors on the rear-end conflict of the tail vehicle.The results show that the predictive model combining traffic state variables and the string stability indicator exhibits superior performance,with the accuracy,precision,and recall of 95.90%,93.60%,and 89.80%,respectively.The higher the platoon string stability indicator value,the higher the probability of rear-end conflict for the tail vehicle.Moreover,the significant factors affecting the rear-end conflicts include the standard deviation(SD)of the tail vehicle’s acceleration,the minimum space headway of the lead vehicle,the SD of the space headway of the tail vehicle,and the SD of the time headway of the tail vehicle.

关 键 词：交通安全 追尾冲突 数据驱动 稳定性分析 轨迹数据 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]