邮轮旅游事故类型特征及其引致因素  

Research on the typological features and contributing factors for cruise tourism accidents

作　　者：全洪巍 叶欣梁[1] 孙瑞红[1] Quan Hongwei;Ye Xinliang;Sun Ruihong(School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201600,China)

机构地区：[1]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201600

出　　处：《中国生态旅游》2024年第4期834-847,共14页Journal of Chinese Ecotourism

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BGL281);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(22FGLB040)。

摘　　要：提升邮轮旅游安全对维护邮轮旅游形象、保障行业健康、预防事故及增强公众信心至关重要。文章以2000—2024年期间全球3376起邮轮事故为数据基础,采用列联表卡方检验和分类回归等方法,统计检定全球邮轮旅游事故类型与事故后果,探析灾难性事故、公共卫生事故、社会安全事故、自然灾害事故等类型的引致因素。研究发现:(1)邮轮事故数量与邮轮旅游行业发展规模的变化趋势基本一致,航线繁忙的海域与港口发生事故的概率大;灾难性事故是发生频率最高的邮轮旅游事故类型,且其亚类最为复杂多样。(2)不同类型事故导致的事故后果存在性质和程度的差异,公共卫生事故和自然灾害2种类型更易造成较大的人员伤亡。(3)邮轮旅游事故的引致因素存在显著的类型差异。其中,人员因素与灾难性事故、公共卫生事故和社会安全事故的发生密切相关;设备因素也是灾难性事故的重要诱因;环境因素是自然灾害和许多灾难性事故的主要原因;管理因素对公共卫生发展影响极大。据此,文章提出邮轮旅游风险管控措施建议,以期为邮轮旅游业安全管理和健康发展提供参考。Enhancing the safety of cruise tourism is crucial for preserving the reputation of cruise ships,safeguarding the healthy development of the industry,preventing accidents,and enhancing public confidence.Based on data from 3376 global cruise accidents from 2000 to 2024,this paper employs chi-square tests and categorical regression methods to statistically analyze the types and consequences of worldwide cruise tourism accidents.It further examines the correlation among catastrophic accidents,social security incidents,public health emergencies,natural disasters and other contributing factors.The findings indicate that:(1)the number of cruise accidents aligns closely with the growth trajectory of the cruise industry;accident probabilities are elevated in busy maritime areas and ports;catastrophic incidents represent the most prevalent category of cruise-related mishaps with a wide array of subclasses exhibiting their complexity and diversity.(2)There exist variations in both nature and severity regarding accident outcomes across different incident types;public health emergencies and natural disasters tend to cause higher casualty rates.(3)Significant disparities are observed in the causative factors behind cruise tourism accidents.Personnel factors are closely related to the occurrence of catastrophic accidents,public health accidents and social security accidents;equipment factors are also important triggers of catastrophic accidents;environmental elements predominantly drive natural disasters as well as numerous catastrophic events;management factors have a great impact on the development of public health accidents.Accordingly,this paper proposes several suggestions on risk control measures for cruise tourism to serve as guidance for effective safety management and sustainable development of cruise tourism.

关 键 词：邮轮安全 旅游事故 引致因素 邮轮旅游 旅游安全 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]